#数字资产生态回暖 【Market Brief】Bitcoin is once again at a critical crossroads, with bulls and bears engaging in intense battles near $91,000. According to market data, current short positions amount to approximately $2.5 billion, while long positions are around $1.5 billion, placing the two sides in a delicate balance.

The next direction is quite clear: if Bitcoin rises above $94,830, the $2.5 billion short positions face a risk of concentrated liquidation, and the market could enter a parabolic bullish trend; conversely, if it drops below $85,906, the $1.5 billion long positions' survival space will be severely compressed, potentially triggering a waterfall decline.

**Where is the real variable?**

Next Wednesday’s US PPI data is the apparent trigger point, but the true driver behind the scenes is the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. This data will determine liquidity flows—which in turn decide the fate of the entire market.

**Three possible futures:**

If the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet remains above $6.6 trillion, it indicates continued "money printing," with ample market liquidity, likely allowing Bitcoin to break upward and rise in a parabolic manner. In such an environment, capital has nowhere else to go but into risk assets.

If the balance sheet is between $6.5 trillion and $6.6 trillion, it suggests the Fed is adopting a wait-and-see stance. Bulls and bears may repeatedly tug at the $90,000 level, causing the market to become stagnant—lacking both upward catalysts and downward pressure. Investors should prepare for a prolonged psychological grind.

The most pessimistic scenario is a balance sheet below $6.5 trillion—signaling liquidity tightening. Market risk appetite will decline, and Bitcoin could face a free-fall decline, even potentially breaking through the $80,000 support level.

**Subtle signals in the market**

An interesting development is the changing mining ecosystem for Ethereum. The network’s mining difficulty is adjusting, and some miners are gradually reducing their hash rate investments. What does this usually indicate? Market participants are sensing potential risks. A decline in mining difficulty often precedes price adjustments, and this time may be no exception.

**The gamble ahead**

On one side, $2.5 billion in shorts are betting on a decline; on the other, $1.5 billion in longs are betting on an rise. Between them lies the seemingly simple but actually decisive line at $91,000—where lives are won or lost. Pushing upward will flood the market with blood (liquidation of shorts); pushing downward will cause longs to taste defeat.

**What’s your view on this situation?**

Which direction will Bitcoin ultimately break through? Will the Fed’s next move really be to loosen policy? Or are signs of tightening already faintly appearing? Feel free to share your judgment and reasoning in the comments.