Consensus Trap: When "Bulls" Lose Marginal Effects

9 institutions coincidentally bet on "ETF inflows," forming a highly homogeneous predictive logic.

When a certain factor is fully recognized by the market and reflected in the price, it loses its marginal driving force. By early 2025, ETF inflow expectations have been fully priced in, and every investor knows this "bullish" factor; the price has already reacted in advance. The market needs "unexpected" news, not "expected" ones.

ETF inflows for the year fell short of expectations, with net ETF outflows of $3.48-4.3 billion in November. More importantly, institutions overlooked that ETFs are a two-way channel — when the market turns, they not only fail to provide support but also become a highway for capital outflows.

When 90% of analysts are telling the same story, that story has already lost its alpha value.