The Flows on the Square | 2025.12.19

The Bank of Japan today (December 19) raised its policy interest rate by 25 basis points from 0.5% to 0.75%, reaching a 30-year high since September 1995. Although this rate hike was fully anticipated and priced in by the market, and the financial markets reacted relatively calmly after the announcement, its symbolic significance is profound, marking a shift away from the world's last major accommodative monetary policy.

Flow Perspective

The 25 basis point rate hike by Japan itself is not the core driver behind the rebound of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum today. Instead, after the news was officially released, the market exhibited a "sell the expectations, buy the facts" pattern. Previously, concerns that the rate hike would trigger large-scale unwinding of global yen arbitrage trades were temporarily alleviated due to the moderate increase and cautious outlook, with some safe-haven funds flowing back into risk assets, forming a technical rebound.

For Ethereum, yesterday’s spike and subsequent pullback confirmed the strong resistance at the $3,000 level, with the bearish trend unchanged. The rebound today shows insufficient momentum and volume, making it difficult to signal a reversal.

Key Levels

Resistance above: Focus on $2,870 (recent high support turned resistance). A break above this level could lead to testing the core resistance zone of $3,000 - $3,100.
Support below: $2,700 is a recent psychological level. If risk sentiment rekindles and the price drops with increased volume below this point, it could trigger a deep bottoming process toward the $2,500 - $2,300 zone.

The current market remains in a bearish bottoming phase. In terms of operation, avoid mistaking intraday rebounds for trend reversals and entering on the left side. True stabilization requires waiting for clear "bottoming reversal candlestick patterns" at key support levels accompanied by sustained volume expansion. Be patient and observe, waiting for the market to give more definitive signals. #ETH走势分析 $ETH