2025-12-24 08:23:03

The latest energy storage cell market has been released, and the spot prices from second-tier manufacturers have increased by another 2-3 cents compared to November. Leading brands like Ruipu, Haichen, and Xinwangda have all pushed their quotes into the 3.3 cents range. Delivery times are generally after April next year, and payment is required upfront. The situation with top-tier large factories is even more extreme—prices have slightly increased, and the order lead times are shockingly long. They are basically unwilling to accept small orders below 1G.

The logic behind this round of price increases is quite clear—demand remains hot, coupled with rising raw material costs. The 2-3 cent increase may seem small, but every player in the supply chain has already implemented a linked formula for raw material prices: for every 20,000 yuan increase in lithium carbonate price, the cell cost rises by 1.2 cents. The good news is that this price hike cannot suppress energy storage demand. Starting from the first quarter of next year, first- and second-tier companies will deploy new capacities of large 587Ah cells. Industry feedback indicates a potential cost reduction of about 10%, enough to offset the rise in raw material costs.

Speaking of raw materials, the lithium carbonate market is even more interesting. Futures contracts have officially broken through the 120,000 yuan mark—honestly, this is the starting point we predicted for lithium prices in 2026, and it has now been reached ahead of schedule. Why do we keep emphasizing that 120,000 yuan is a critical threshold? The static balance sheet data is nearly flat, and there are even signs of a shortfall, so lithium prices can no longer be set based on the old cost curve. Instead, they need to shift toward a reasonable industry return rate.

Calculations make it clear: by 2030, lithium demand will reach 4 million tons, which is exactly double the level in 2026. Supporting such large-scale capacity investments and ongoing capital expenditures requires mining companies to maintain healthy gross margins and investment returns. From this perspective, under a healthy supply and demand balance, maintaining lithium carbonate at the 120,000 yuan level is actually reasonable. The current price is not just supported by expectations but also backed by solid fundamentals.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

13 Likes

Reward
13
8
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

BrokenRugs

· 7h ago

Damn, the price has gone up again? The delivery is still after April, who can handle this?

View OriginalReply0

OPsychology

· 10h ago

Small orders are directly sidelined, which is outrageous --- 120,000 really has stabilized, it feels like the script for 2026 is being played out in advance --- Energy storage demand is so hot, do battery cell factories really dare to engage in hunger marketing, scheduling until April next year? --- The logic behind the lithium carbonate price surge is clear, but downstream companies are also under significant pressure --- The new 587ah capacity reduces costs by 10%, is this claim true, are there specific data? --- April delivery with upfront payment, small and medium orders are really being abandoned --- Still, as I said, maintaining high lithium prices is not entirely bad for the industry chain --- This round of price hikes is more aggressive than the last, after a wave in November, it’s happening again

View OriginalReply0

degenonymous

· 10h ago

Oh my, it went up again? My small order was directly rejected.

View OriginalReply0

SeasonedInvestor

· 10h ago

The market has risen again. This wave of lithium prices is no joke; 120,000 really has stabilized. Small factories are now struggling. Orders are scheduled until April, and they still need to pay upfront. Who can withstand that? But on the other hand, the new capacity of 587ah can reduce costs by 10%. If this actually materializes, there might be some easing later on. By 2030, with a demand of 4 million tons, mining companies will indeed need to maintain profit margins. Otherwise, who would be willing to invest in expanding production? The 120,000 price point looks solid, but small retail investors can't afford to buy now...

View OriginalReply0

FlyingLeek

· 10h ago

Paying upfront and having to wait until April next year—who's cash flow is being tested here? Small orders are directly sidelined; life is really tough for small and medium-sized enterprises. At the 120,000 mark, it seems lithium mining is truly about to stabilize. With both price hikes and supply disruptions, the energy storage sector is too complex. The doubled demand by 2030, the current prices might still be cheap. I just want to ask, when will this round of price increases finally come to an end?

View OriginalReply0

gas_fee_therapist

· 10h ago

Can't keep pushing anymore, small orders are really going to be wiped out... Paying next April? Pay now? Small businesses are having a tough time. The 120,000 lithium price has stabilized, but does it need to go higher from here... The new 587ah capacity can reduce costs by 10%, but that also seems a bit optimistic. The supply and demand imbalance feels like it will continue for a while.

View OriginalReply0

NFTPessimist

· 10h ago

Prices are rising again and again, is it now the turn of energy storage batteries? The industry just keeps competing like this. Small orders are simply ignored, and I’m puzzled. How did it become an exclusive game for big manufacturers? Is 120,000 yuan for lithium carbonate the bottom line? Ha, sounds nice, but anyway, the retail investors are us. By 2030, lithium demand will reach 4 million tons, and by 2026, production must be doubled. No matter how you calculate it, consumers will have to foot the bill. The booming energy storage demand ≈ no one can get a bargain. Maybe now is the time to enter as a bagholder.

View OriginalReply0

PositionPhobia

· 10h ago

Small orders are no longer in demand, this is a sign of tight production capacity. --- 120,000 units have stabilized, and the recent rise in lithium prices is well-founded. --- Let's wait until the 587ah capacity is implemented; for now, just observe. --- For every 20,000 increase in lithium carbonate price, add 1.2 points; this formula must be memorized. --- Delivery is only possible by April next year? This pace is crazy. --- Is energy storage demand really that hot, or is the inventory just being digested? --- 120,000 is a threshold; we'll see if the supply side can keep up later. --- Top manufacturers' order queues are astonishing; the capacity gap is indeed large.

View OriginalReply0