Looking at on-chain data, there are some interesting points.

Over 6 million Bitcoins are stacked above $80,000, with a total value of about $600 billion. Currently, the global capital situation is like this: to bring in capital at the trillion-dollar level, and simultaneously have hundreds of billions flowing in monthly to push new highs—frankly, the probability is not high.

Interestingly, the $70,000 to $80,000 range is actually a chip blank zone. What about $75,000? That was the low point during this year's mid-term shakeout and the starting point of the secondary rally. It should have formed a dense zone of chips. But what happened? From the mid-term secondary rally to now, the funds that entered later have accumulated several million chips overall.

The weekly chart has been showing divergence for half a year, with eight consecutive weekly declines. This pattern is very clear—large funds and those long-dormant old chips are coordinating to distribute. Since they've already found a sucker to take over, immediate liberation is impossible. A shakeout is necessary, to buy back the chips.

The problem is, most chips are stacked around $90,000. Even if it drops to $60,000, that's only a 40% decline. For crypto traders, this kind of drop feels like a tickle, making it hard to cause real panic. To make it interesting, the price needs to fall below $50,000, at least a 50% correction on average, followed by long-term sideways consolidation. Only then can the floating chips be fully shaken out and the bulls be crushed.

From the current trend, the probability of this script playing out is increasing.