#数字资产市场动态 $BTC $ETH $DOGE The truth behind US GDP data: how much is real?

The 4.3% growth in Q3 looks impressive, but it's a numbers game. The annualized quarter-over-quarter calculation artificially inflates the three-month result to a full-year scale, causing data to expand automatically. Moreover, this is just an initial figure; everyone knows China's style—revisions are the norm later on. Don't forget that the government shutdown lasted over 40 days in Q4, which definitely impacted the economy. Calling it a "strong recovery" at this point is indeed premature.

The stock market's reaction is actually more honest. After the data was released, US stocks plunged—reason straightforward: the economic data was too good, leaving no reason for the Federal Reserve to continue cutting rates. This is exactly what the market fears most.

But Trump quickly broke the deadlock. His logic sounds counterintuitive: a strong economy should lead to rate cuts, allowing funds to keep flowing and pushing growth to the limit; inflation can be dealt with later. Although this approach is unconventional, the market bets he can deliver on it.

What was the result? The offshore RMB has already approached 7.01, and breaking the 7.0 threshold seems imminent. Last September, the exchange rate briefly broke below 6.9; afterward, the US slowed rate cuts and resumed balance sheet reduction, causing the RMB to rebound. Now, the situation looks similar—once 7.0 breaks, the exchange rate trend may reverse.

The ripple effects are already evident: gold, silver, and copper prices have hit new all-time highs. In the crypto space, Bitcoin and Ethereum are also quietly changing their cycle rhythms. Some even believe 2025 is just the prelude, with the real show happening in 2026.

Final observation: data can be packaged, but trends don't lie. In the global game of easing liquidity, whoever sees through the cards holds the advantage.