## Will the 2025 Gold Market Continue to Rebound? The Three Major Drivers of Future Gold Price Trends

Since gold broke through the historic high of $4,400 per ounce in October 2024, although a technical pullback followed, market optimism about future gold prices has never waned. Looking back, what exactly is driving this round of gold行情? Can the upward trend in gold prices continue in the future? Is it already too late for retail investors to enter?

### Why Are Gold Prices Rising? Analysis of the Three Core Factors

**First: Market Uncertainty Caused by Trump’s Tariff Policies**

A series of tariff policy announcements at the beginning of the year directly triggered the 2025 gold surge. Frequent policy changes heightened risk aversion sentiment in the market, prompting investors to turn to gold for asset protection. Historical data shows that during periods of similar policy uncertainty (such as the US-China trade war in 2018), gold prices typically experience a short-term increase of 5 to 10%.

**Second: Expectations of Federal Reserve Rate Cuts Drive Real Interest Rates Down**

There is a clear negative correlation between Federal Reserve rate cuts and gold prices—lower interest rates make gold more attractive. According to the latest CME interest rate tools, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is 84.7%. Notably, after the September rate cut, gold prices actually declined because the market had already priced in the cut, and Powell did not hint at a continued rate-cut path, leading to a change in market expectations.

Real interest rates (nominal interest rate minus inflation rate) are a key indicator for judging gold price trends. When real interest rates fall, the opportunity cost of holding interest-free assets like gold decreases, attracting more capital inflow.

**Third: Central Banks Continue to Increase Gold Reserves**

According to the latest report from the World Gold Council(WGC), net gold purchases by central banks reached 220 tons in Q3 2025, a 28% increase quarter-on-quarter. In the first nine months, total gold purchases amounted to about 634 tons, slightly lower than the same period last year but still at a high level in history. More notably, 76% of surveyed central banks indicated they would "moderately or significantly increase" their gold holdings over the next five years, while most expect the proportion of US dollar reserves to decline. This trend reflects a long-term adjustment in international confidence in the US dollar.

### Factors Supporting the Rise in Gold Prices

In addition to the three main drivers above, factors such as high global debt, geopolitical tensions, and declining confidence in the US dollar also collectively push up gold value. According to IMF statistics, global debt has reached $307 trillion, and high debt levels limit the monetary policy flexibility of various countries, favoring easing policies that further suppress real interest rates.

Ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, conflicts in the Middle East, and other geopolitical risks have strengthened investors’ demand for safe-haven assets. Continuous media coverage and social media hype have also fueled short-term capital inflows, creating a continuous surge.

It is worth noting that short-term factors can trigger intense volatility and do not necessarily indicate a long-term trend will persist. For Taiwanese investors, foreign currency-denominated gold also requires consideration of USD/TWD exchange rate fluctuations affecting actual returns.

( Institutional Outlook for Gold Prices at the End of 2025 to 2026

Despite recent fluctuations and adjustments, mainstream investment institutions remain optimistic about the future trend. JPMorgan’s commodities team considers this correction a "healthy adjustment," raising the Q4 2026 target price to $5,055 per ounce. Goldman Sachs maintains its end-of-2026 target of $4,900 per ounce, while Bank of America further raises it to $5,000, even hinting that gold could challenge the $6,000 level next year.

From the retail side, well-known domestic jewelry brands such as Chow Tai Fook, Luk Fook, Chao Hong Ji, and Chow Sang Sang still quote stable pure gold jewelry prices above 1,100 TWD per gram, with no obvious decline, indirectly confirming market recognition of gold’s medium- to long-term value.

) Different Investment Strategies and Recommendations for Investors

**For experienced short-term traders**

Volatility creates opportunities for short-term operations. Market liquidity is ample, and trend judgment is relatively easier. During sharp rises or falls, the strength of bulls and bears is clear. Using economic calendars to track US economic data releases can effectively assist trading decisions.

**For novice investors**

If participating in short-term volatility, do not blindly chase highs. It is recommended to start with small capital to test the waters, gradually accumulate experience, and avoid over-leveraging that could crush your psychology. Gold’s annual volatility averages 19.4%, even exceeding the S&P 500’s 14.7%, so risk management is crucial.

**For long-term allocators**

Buying physical gold for long-term holding requires mental preparation, as mid-term fluctuations can be significant. Although the long-term trend is upward, gold cycles are very long—within the same decade, prices can double or be halved. Transaction costs for physical gold generally range from 5% to 20%. It is advisable not to concentrate too much capital in gold.

**For portfolio optimizers**

While holding long-term, take advantage of volatility for short-term trading, especially around key US economic data releases, when volatility often amplifies. This strategy requires investors to have certain practical experience and risk control capabilities. Regardless of the approach, diversification principles should be followed to avoid putting all funds into a single asset.

### Summary: The Core Logic of Future Gold Price Trends

Gold, as a reserve asset with "global confidence," still has a solid long-term upward logic—factors such as Fed rate cut expectations, central bank持續增持, geopolitical risks, and US dollar confidence decline are unlikely to reverse in the short term. However, in actual trading, caution is needed regarding short-term volatility risks around US economic data releases and Federal Reserve meetings.

The current gold行情 has not ended; both short-term and medium-long-term opportunities remain. The key is to choose appropriate participation methods based on your risk tolerance and trading experience.