2025-12-24 12:25:20

On prediction market platforms, you can observe an interesting phenomenon—bets on the price of certain new project tokens are actually nearly half the official ICO valuation.

Taking the recent Solstice project as an example, it conducted an ICO on the Legion platform, with the current token FDV priced at $130 million. Someone did a quick calculation: whether the FDV on the first day of listing can surpass this specific bet, it implies a $50M price difference—this indeed sounds like it’s seriously undervalued.

The question now is: is the market really not reacting yet, or do prediction market participants have differing opinions on this project's prospects? This is worth paying attention to.

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BTCRetirementFund

· 1h ago

A 50M price difference? That doesn't seem right. The people predicting the market can't all be blind, right? --- Is Solstice undervalued or is the prediction market playing psychological warfare? Honestly, I don't understand. --- With such a large half-price arbitrage opportunity, someone is definitely intentionally suppressing the price or simply doesn't believe in it. --- The bets on the Legion platform are really daring; it feels like they're betting on market sentiment rather than fundamentals. --- Wait, 1.3 billion FDV and it can still drop like this? New projects are really that hard. --- This is ridiculous. Such a obvious price difference should only make sense if something goes wrong. --- Half of the prediction market is probably betting on a dip on the first day; why are they so pessimistic? --- I suspect insider information is causing such a big market divergence. --- Being half price is either a treasure or a trap, there's no middle ground. --- Honestly, I have no impression of Solstice. Does this project have any gimmicks?

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MoonRocketman

· 4h ago

Prediction markets and ICO pricing differ by 50M? This is either cognitive arbitrage or the market is voting with real money saying "You're overestimating."

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CoffeeNFTrader

· 4h ago

A 50M spread? Bro, that's a bit outrageous. It seems like the people predicting the market still haven't grasped this project.

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HodlAndChill

· 4h ago

I have to say, this kind of price difference is almost tempting me to go all in... But do the people over at Legion really have such a bearish outlook on Solstice? It seems a bit outrageous.

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Rugman_Walking

· 4h ago

50M space? Are you really willing to bet on that? The next project with a sudden drop to floor price.

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NftRegretMachine

· 4h ago

Whoa, a 50 million price difference? Only someone with that much confidence would dare to push so hard.

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