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According to Deribit data, $23 billion worth of Bitcoin options contracts will expire on Friday, accounting for half of the open interest on the world's largest options platform. In the market structure, bears have accumulated $1.4 billion in put options at the $85,000 strike price, forming a clear price attraction zone. Once the price reaches this area, market makers' hedging operations may trigger a chain reaction. Meanwhile, call options at $100,000 and $120,000 are also worth noting, indicating that institutional investors are clearly preparing for a potential rebound.
Price volatility around options expiration is not entirely random. Historical data shows that major funds typically position themselves in high-density strike zones in advance, then leverage Gamma squeeze effects to amplify market fluctuations, guiding the price toward the "maximum pain point" to ultimately hedge their positions. The sharp 2000-point fluctuation in December last year is a typical example.
For participants, the key to risk control lies in position management. Keep spot holdings within 30%, build protective positions using out-of-the-money put options, and focus on monitoring the critical support level at $85,000. Historical data indicates that when the price stabilizes at this level, the success rate of bottom-fishing increases significantly. Caution is also needed regarding the reverse volatility window within 48 hours after options expiration, during which the probability of a reverse trend is about 75%.
Volatility itself is both a risk and an opportunity. The core function of options tools is risk hedging, not speculation. When institutions weave a "gravity net" in the market through options structures, rational participants should learn to operate precisely within this framework. Whether they can survive this wave of market movement depends on whether they truly understand the mechanisms behind volatility.