This week has been a bit crazy. First, signals of easing in the geopolitical winds appeared, then internal conflicts within the Federal Reserve flared up again, and the global financial markets found themselves at a crossroads.

As the year-end approaches, the normally quiet trading season has been interrupted by a series of "macro bombs" being detonated one after another. As someone who keeps a close eye on macro developments every day, I can feel it—each piece of news is enough to make the entire market shake.

The internal news from the Federal Reserve early this morning was even more explosive: regarding the monetary policy direction for 2026, their internal discussions have completely erupted, and the path of rate cuts has become shrouded in fog. This could be a real ultimate test for the crypto market's performance before the Christmas holiday.

**How serious are the disagreements?**

Powell is probably under quite a bit of pressure right now. Last week, the Fed completed its third rate cut of the year, bringing rates down to 3.50%-3.75%. But once the voting results came out, the issues were exposed—three members voted against the decision, the highest number since September 2019.

What's more interesting is that the reasons for opposition are completely opposite. Fed Governor Mester advocates for a more aggressive approach, proposing a 50 basis point cut directly; the other two members believe rates shouldn't be cut at all and should remain unchanged. This kind of tug-of-war has directly disrupted market expectations for next year.

**Major institutions are all guessing**

Predictions from investment banks vary widely: Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley say rates will be cut by 50 basis points in 2026; Citigroup is more aggressive, forecasting a 75 basis point cut; while HSBC and Standard Chartered believe rates will stay unchanged throughout the year.

What does this divergence really mean? Even Powell himself has to admit that current interest rates are already within the "broadly neutral rate estimate" range. The Fed's current stance is—watch, wait, and see how the economy develops.

This ambiguous stance suggests that the Fed may enter a period of watchful waiting. For the crypto market, this kind of uncertainty often acts as a trigger for the next wave of volatility.