Is the crude oil market entering an ice age? OPEC+ delays production increase, and the future trend of oil faces multiple challenges

The situation between Russia and Ukraine may change, non-OPEC supplies continue to flood in, and global demand remains weak—these three forces are reshaping the future trend of oil. Against this backdrop, OPEC+ has decided to make significant adjustments.

OPEC+ Sends Key Signal: Urgent Increase in Production Plans

On November 30, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) will hold an important meeting. According to industry insiders, due to signs of oversupply in the global crude oil market, Saudi Arabia and its allied countries have decided to adjust their production increase pace in the first quarter of 2026, temporarily delaying the originally planned expansion.

This decision reflects the immense market pressure. As of November 28, WTI crude oil is priced at $59.08 per barrel (unchanged), and Brent crude oil at $63.02 per barrel (up slightly by 0.14%). Despite recent signs of rebound, oil prices have continued to decline for the 4th consecutive month. Since early 2025, WTI crude has fallen by 18% in total, and Brent crude has decreased by 17%. This persistent downward trend has forced OPEC+ to reconsider its capacity arrangements.

Geopolitical Changes and Oversupply Create Double Pressure

The key factor driving the future trend of oil also lies in geopolitics. U.S. President Trump is pushing for peace negotiations in Ukraine. If an agreement is reached, Russia’s crude oil supply may gradually return to the international market, further exacerbating the global oversupply of crude oil.

In addition to the potential release of Russian supplies, strong production from other regions continues to increase. This makes it difficult for OPEC+ to effectively support oil prices even if it takes production cuts.

Authoritative Institutions Forecast: The Future of Oil Looks Bleak

Many top global investment banks hold conservative views on the future trend of oil.

Goldman Sachs analysts pointed out that, assuming geopolitical stability is maintained and non-Russian supplies remain strong, the prices of Brent and WTI crude oil in 2026 could fall to $56 and $52 per barrel, respectively. If Russia and Ukraine reach a peace agreement and the U.S. lifts sanctions on Russia, Brent and WTI prices could further decline by $4-5 per barrel, meaning the average Brent crude price in 2026 could drop to $51-52 per barrel.

JPMorgan’s outlook is even more pessimistic. The bank believes that under severe oversupply shocks, Brent crude could fall below $50 in Q4 2026, and after 2027, it could drop into the $30-40 range.

In short, although OPEC+ has decided to adjust its production increase plans, the future trend of oil still faces multiple bearish factors such as geopolitical easing and ample global non-OPEC supplies. This oil market winter may have only just begun.