#比特币Layer2扩展 Seeing the BTC Layer2 forecast for 2026, what flashed through my mind were the debates about Ethereum before it was even born back in 2014. Back then, the Bitcoin community's discussions on block size expansion were just as intense as they are now, only we didn't have terms like Rollup or Sequencer yet.

Now BTC Layer2 is about to make a comeback, and honestly, this should have happened a long time ago. This isn't a new narrative; it's a delayed catch-up of ten years. Bitcoin has always been the most stable chain, but precisely because of its conservatism, its ecosystem innovation has been overshadowed by Ethereum for so long. Today, Optimism and Arbitrum have been running on Ethereum for five or six years, and their technology has matured enough to be directly transplanted onto Bitcoin.

Let me take a historical perspective—when Ethereum launched in 2015, no one believed it could surpass Bitcoin's application boundaries. At that time, the Bitcoin community even mocked the idea that "Turing completeness isn't a good thing." But everyone knows how the story unfolded later. The current rhythm feels familiar: the mainstream narrative shifting from Ethereum to BTC Layer2, this is the cycle speaking.

Interestingly, the news mentions that "the first batch of Bitcoin Layer2s going live will challenge the notion that BTC is just meme coins or outdated relics." That really struck me. Historically, whenever someone says a chain is "obsolete," it's often just before a major transformation. In 2017, people said Bitcoin was dead without smart contracts; in 2021, others claimed Ethereum would be replaced by Solana. Now, it's Bitcoin's turn.

But we need to stay calm. The real test for BTC Layer2 isn't just about going live; it's whether the application ecosystem can truly take off. What do general-purpose Rollups rely on to survive? Killer applications. This is the deepest lesson I learned from the Ethereum Rollup wars. Having the technology in place is just the first step; the key is who can attract real users and genuine transaction volume.

I'm more optimistic about BTC Layer2s with clear application directions—like RWA, payment clearing, and similar services. These are areas where Bitcoin itself excels. If BTC Layer2 can make breakthroughs here, 2026 might indeed mark a new chapter.

History tells me there's no need to rush into bets. Wait until the first batch goes live and look at three months of data before making a decision.