Investors Must Watch Before Quadruple Witching Day: Why Does the Market Experience Abnormal Fluctuations?

There are four trading days each year, during which the market experiences similar “magical moments”—this is what the investment community often refers to as Quadruple Witching Day. Many people become alert upon hearing this term because these days are often accompanied by unusual and intense price fluctuations. But what exactly happens behind the scenes? Why does Quadruple Witching Day become a focal point for investors?

What is the core mechanism of Quadruple Witching Day

The name “Quadruple Witching” comes from the phenomenon of simultaneous expiration of four types of American derivative products. These four products are single-stock futures, single-stock options, stock index futures, and stock index options.

The pricing logic of derivatives is fundamentally different from that of spot assets. Futures and options are based on the concept of “future prices”—if the market is bullish, futures prices will be higher than the spot; conversely, if bearish. As the settlement date approaches, futures prices and the spot gradually converge, ultimately coinciding at expiration. This invisible tug-of-war over prices, as if manipulated by some “wizard’s power,” is why it’s called Quadruple Witching.

Since US derivatives settle quarterly, occurring four times a year, these days fall on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December, which is the origin of Quadruple Witching Day.

The 2024 Quadruple Witching Dates

Investors should mark these key dates on their calendars:

A special reminder: if you are using leverage trading, these days require extra caution, as price volatility may trigger forced liquidations.

Why does Quadruple Witching Day trigger market movements

Market performance on Quadruple Witching Day usually exhibits three characteristics:

First, trading volume and volatility surge. When derivatives enter their final settlement phase, participation increases significantly, and arbitrage activities between spot and futures become more active.

Second, market sentiment dominates. The fear index rises, market turnover skyrockets, and the influence of fundamentals is temporarily marginalized.

Third, prices deviate from fundamentals. The rise or fall of stocks or indices often disconnects from company earnings or economic data, driven purely by technical and momentum factors.

Market makers’ control becomes more evident on Quadruple Witching Day

The settlement price of derivatives is usually determined by the average spot price during the last hour of trading on Quadruple Witching Day, known as the “Quadruple Witching Hour.”

Because of this, institutional investors with large positions tend to operate intensively during this hour, attempting to push the spot price in their favor. The goal of market makers is clear: by controlling price movements, they maximize their profits from the derivative settlement price.

Market observations show that market makers often adopt a “pull down oversold stocks and push up overbought stocks” strategy—raising severely oversold stocks and suppressing overly risen stocks—to lock in the best profit margins at settlement.

Patterns revealed by historical data

Since comprehensive statistics began in 1994, a clear pattern has emerged: in bullish years, market makers tend to push the spot prices higher during Quadruple Witching. However, investigations show that 88% of stocks that surge excessively on Quadruple Witching Day will fall within the following week, with the S&P 500 index averaging a decline of 1.2%.

This reflects a market truth: prices driven up by market makers often exceed genuine market demand. Once derivatives settle, without new buying support, retail investors taking profits will cause prices to fall back.

Of course, there are exceptions. In some years, if the market is in a bearish trend, prices may decline during Quadruple Witching. Or if too many retail traders try to “ride the wave,” it can lead to “market manipulation blowouts,” trapping the market makers.

What Quadruple Witching Day reveals for different investors

For long-term holders, the volatility on Quadruple Witching Day can be ignored. Because ultimately, stock prices will revert to fundamentals, and short-term momentum shifts do not alter the long-term value of companies.

For short-term traders, especially those involved in momentum trading, Quadruple Witching Day is crucial. During these days, both market makers and speculators will inject large amounts of capital into the market, and price swings around this period are usually significantly larger than normal days. Those expecting a rebound from oversold conditions can go long; those anticipating a correction after overbought levels can short.

But remember: such trading is entirely based on momentum and technical factors, unrelated to fundamentals. It is suitable only for short-term positions, and strict stop-loss discipline is essential; otherwise, losses can be severe.

Market outlook and investment advice for 2024

Based on past experience, bullish years in the US stock market tend to see excessive gains during Quadruple Witching, while bearish years tend to decline.

Currently, the US stock market benefits from the ongoing AI boom, and it is expected that the 2024 Quadruple Witching will maintain a bullish trend unless a major black swan event causes a market reversal. Investors should closely monitor market developments.

Another practical tip: if participating in the market through derivatives, unless planning short-term trades, it is advisable to提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前提前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