What is the outlook for gold's future trend? Where will it rise to in 2025?

This year’s gold market has been incredibly hot. From the beginning of the year to October, this rally has nearly broken all records—reaching a historic high of $4,400 per ounce in October. Although there was a correction afterward, most institutions remain optimistic about the future market. Many friends ask: Is it still possible to enter now? What will gold prices do in the future? This article helps clarify your thinking.

How fierce is this gold rally?

Numbers speak the loudest. According to Reuters data, the gold price increase in 2024-2025 is close to the highest in nearly 30 years, surpassing 31% in 2007 and 29% in 2010. In other words, this rally has outperformed the performance during the subprime mortgage crisis and the European debt crisis.

Put another way, if you entered the gold market at the start of the year, your returns are already quite substantial—despite recent volatility.

Why is gold rising? There are three core drivers

1. Uncertainty caused by U.S. tariff policies

Since Trump took office, a series of tariff measures have directly ignited market risk aversion. Historical experience (such as the 2018 US-China trade war) shows that during periods of policy uncertainty, gold typically experiences a short-term increase of 5–10%. The more unstable the market, the greater the demand for “safe-haven assets” like gold.

2. Expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts

Fed rate cuts tend to weaken the dollar, and since gold is priced in USD, the opportunity cost of buying gold decreases. This makes gold more attractive relative to other assets. Currently, CME interest rate tools show an 84.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, which undoubtedly supports gold prices.

Some wonder: why did gold fall after the September FOMC meeting? Because the 25 basis point rate cut was fully priced in, and Powell labeled this cut as a “risk management” move without indicating a series of cuts, making the market cautious about future policy moves.

3. Continued accumulation of gold reserves by global central banks

According to the World Gold Council report, in Q3 2025, global central banks net purchased 220 tons of gold, a 28% increase from the previous quarter. More importantly, 76% of surveyed central banks expect to increase their gold reserves over the next five years while reducing their dollar reserves. This is a clear signal—central banks worldwide are betting on gold with their actions.

Are there other supporting factors?

Besides the three main drivers, the following factors also continue to push up gold prices:

Global high debt levels favor loose monetary policy — By 2025, global debt will reach $307 trillion. High debt levels limit countries’ room to adjust interest rates, and loose policies tend to lower real interest rates, indirectly boosting gold’s attractiveness.

Declining confidence in the dollar — When the dollar weakens, gold, as another reserve asset, benefits, and funds naturally flow into gold.

Geopolitical risks — The Russia-Ukraine war is ongoing, tensions in the Middle East persist, all increasing investors’ demand for safe assets.

Media and social media sentiment — Continuous reports and hype on social platforms attract short-term capital inflows, increasing volatility.

What do experts say about the future trend?

Despite recent corrections, major institutions generally remain optimistic:

• JPMorgan considers this correction a “healthy adjustment,” raising its Q4 2026 target price to $5,055 per ounce
• Goldman Sachs maintains a target of $4,900 by the end of 2026
• Bank of America is the most aggressive, raising its target to $5,000, with strategists even suggesting a potential surge to $6,000 next year

Jewelry retailers also reflect market confidence—brands like Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook Jewelry still price pure gold jewelry above 1100 RMB/gram, with no significant drop.

Can I buy now? How to buy more safely?

It depends on your investment style and risk tolerance:

If you’re a short-term trader — Volatility is an opportunity. The highly liquid gold market makes short-term trend judgment relatively easier, especially around economic data releases, where fluctuations tend to amplify. But you need strong technical skills and mental resilience.

If you’re a novice investor — Avoid blindly chasing highs. Start with small amounts to test the waters, get familiar with market rhythm before increasing your position. Remember: gold’s average annual volatility is 19.4% (compared to 14.7% for the S&P 500), so its fluctuations are not less than stocks.

If you want to hold physical gold long-term — Be prepared for significant volatility. Although the long-term bullish logic remains, prices could double or halve in the meantime, and a 10-year cycle is needed to see clear results. Also, physical gold trading costs are relatively high (5%-20%), which should be factored into your investment costs.

If you want to allocate in your portfolio — Absolutely feasible, but don’t put all your assets into gold. Since gold’s volatility is high, diversification is the best strategy.

Advanced operations — If you have experience and risk control ability, you can hold long-term while taking advantage of price fluctuations for short-term trades, especially around US market data releases.

Final reminder

The key to analyzing gold trends lies in understanding its core drivers—interest rates, exchange rates, risk sentiment, and central bank policies. In actual trading, be cautious of short-term volatility risks, especially around economic data and meetings. Regardless of your strategy, risk management should always come first.