The holiday market is approaching, and the market appears calm on the surface, but this is precisely when things are most likely to go wrong. During periods of low liquidity, it is often the best window for the main players to lay in wait—sometimes it’s a boring sideways choppy market, other times it’s a sudden violent shakeout. Don’t be fooled by this calm.

Behind the seemingly gentle movements of gold and silver, there are actually many hidden risks. Especially during the European trading session, which has always been a high-frequency period for trend reversals. Don’t take it lightly.

**The key point to watch is this line: Gold 4500**

This integer threshold has long ceased to be just an ordinary technical level; it has become a watershed for bullish and bearish sentiment:

Can it hold above 4500? That indicates the bulls are truly courageous. The pre-holiday buildup hasn’t been in vain, and the probability of continuing to rise within the 4530-4550 range is quite high.

But if multiple attempts to push higher are repeatedly pushed back and it can’t break through after a long struggle? Then you need to be alert—this is very likely a “fake breakout and smash” tactic by the main players. Once it falls back, first see if it can hold at 4480-4470. If this line also fails, then the correction will need to continue probing lower at 4450.

The performance at this level will directly determine the rhythm of the next few trading days. Keep a close watch.