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I have observed a phenomenon: when the fundamentals of an asset haven't changed much, its price suddenly rises to 1.2 times the previous level, and then the market starts speculating about a shortage of spot supply. This is funny—was there no shortage half a month ago?
To put it simply, the market is always creating stories to justify the rise. First, capital enters to push up the price, and only then do people start looking for reasons to explain why it rose. Spot shortages, favorable policies, institutional entry... these "reasons" only appear after the price has been driven up.
The logic behind the price surge is actually very simple: capital flows in to push the price higher; after the price rises, someone has to buy the top, and when no one is left to buy, the capital has to run away. The question is, who is actually paying for this wave of increase? It’s always the latecomer retail investors who take the last hit.
Rather than believing those makeshift stories, it's better to understand the flow of funds. The true story of the market is hidden in the simple question of who is buying and who is selling.