Will gold prices rise again in 2025? Analyzing market data to predict the future trend of gold prices

Recent performance of gold prices has made many investors restless. From approaching the historical high of $4,400 per ounce in October to the subsequent slight pullback, discussions about will gold rise have been nonstop. So, what is the real driving force behind this round of gold rally? Is there still room for gold prices to go higher in the future?

The Logic Behind This Round of Gold Surge

The data is in front of us, and it’s hard to deny gold’s strength. According to Reuters, the gains in gold for 2024-2025 have already approached the highest levels in nearly 30 years, surpassing 31% in 2007 and 29% in 2010. What does this indicate? It shows that this is not just a hype, but the result of multiple factors working together.

U.S. Tariff Policies as the Catalyst for This Rally

Since Trump took office, a series of tariff measures have been implemented, directly increasing market uncertainty. Every new tariff announcement tends to boost risk aversion sentiment, and as a traditional safe-haven asset, gold naturally becomes the first choice for funds. Historical experience shows that during the U.S.-China trade tensions in 2018, gold prices experienced short-term spikes of 5-10% amid policy uncertainties. The current situation is similar, but with greater intensity.

The Inverse Relationship Between Rate Cuts and Real Interest Rates Cannot Be Ignored

The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy directly impacts gold prices. When rate cut expectations rise, the dollar comes under pressure, and the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases, naturally pushing gold prices higher. That’s why we often see gold price fluctuations closely linked to Fed policy expectations.

According to the latest CME interest rate tools, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at the December meeting has reached 84.7%. This expectation itself supports gold prices. But note, a rate cut that merely meets expectations often won’t trigger a surge—markets look for unexpected policy shifts or clearer signals of rate cuts.

Global Central Banks’ Continued Gold Purchases is also an important factor. According to WGC reports, the net gold purchases by central banks worldwide in Q3 2025 reached 220 tons, a 28% increase from the previous quarter. This is not accidental. In WGC’s 2025 central bank gold reserve survey, 76% of respondents said they plan to “moderately or significantly increase” their gold holdings over the next five years, while most also expect the dollar reserve ratio to decline. The collective actions of central banks reflect a global re-evaluation of gold’s strategic importance.

Deep-Rooted Factors Supporting Gold Prices

Besides the three main drivers above, several other factors are quietly pushing the market:

High Debt Levels Limit Policy Flexibility. By 2025, global debt has reached $307 trillion. In this context, central banks prefer easing rather than tightening policies, leading to persistently low real interest rates, indirectly boosting gold’s relative attractiveness.

Confidence in the US Dollar is Gradually Weakening. When the dollar weakens or market confidence declines, gold priced in dollars benefits—because buying gold with other currencies becomes cheaper. This dynamic attracts more international capital into the precious metals market.

Ongoing Geopolitical Tensions cannot be ignored. Conflicts like Russia-Ukraine, Middle East tensions, etc., increase demand for safe-haven assets globally. In the short term, these news events often cause rapid volatility, adding upward pressure on gold prices.

Social Media Buzz also amplifies the trend. Continuous media coverage and community sentiment can lead to a flood of short-term funds rushing in, creating the illusion of continuous gains. While this force can be strong in the short term, it is also the most unstable.

Do Institutional Predictions Favor a Gold Rise? The Answer Is Optimistic

Despite recent fluctuations, mainstream institutions generally hold a bullish view on gold’s medium- to long-term prospects—

JPMorgan’s commodities research team considers the recent pullback a “healthy correction.” While warning of short-term risks, they are more optimistic about the long-term trend, even raising their Q4 2026 target price to $5,055 per ounce.

Goldman Sachs remains firm, reaffirming a target of $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026.

Bank of America also maintains a positive stance. After raising their 2026 gold target to $5,000 per ounce, their strategists recently stated that gold could even surge to $6,000 next year.

Even from the retail side, major jewelry brands’ reference prices for pure gold jewelry remain above 1,100 RMB/gram, with no significant decline. This indirectly reflects ongoing market recognition of gold’s value.

Is It Still Time for Retail Investors to Jump In?

The reality is, the question will gold rise can vary depending on individual perspectives. The key depends on your investment horizon and risk tolerance.

If you are an experienced short-term trader, the current volatility actually offers many opportunities. Market liquidity is ample, and short-term direction is relatively easier to judge—especially during large swings, where bullish and bearish forces are clear. Riding the trend, catching the tailwinds, can be quite advantageous. It’s recommended to track U.S. economic data releases via economic calendars, and look for trading opportunities around key data points.

If you are a novice investor aiming to participate in short-term fluctuations, remember: start with small funds, and never blindly add more. Market volatility can easily lead to impulsive decisions—buying at the high or selling at the low can quickly deplete your account. Mindset is more important than technical skills.

If you plan to hold physical gold long-term, be prepared for significant fluctuations. While the long-term bullish logic is sound, enduring the intense intermediate swings is a crucial consideration before buying.

Allocating gold in your investment portfolio is fine, but avoid a rookie mistake: putting all your assets into gold. Gold’s volatility is not lower than stocks—in fact, it can be higher (annual volatility 19.4% vs. S&P 500’s 14.7%). Diversification remains the prudent approach.

For maximizing returns, consider combining long-term holdings with short-term trading strategies. Especially around U.S. economic data releases, volatility tends to be most intense and offers trading opportunities. However, this requires experience and risk management skills.

Final Points to Remember

Gold’s cycle is very long. Buying gold with a horizon of over 10 years can theoretically preserve value and even appreciate, but within that period, it could double or halve. Volatility is inherent to gold, not necessarily a risk.

Physical gold trading costs are relatively high, generally between 5% and 20%. Frequent buying and selling can erode returns.

Never put all your eggs in one basket. Whether gold prices continue to rise or not, a reasonable asset allocation is always the foundation of steady returns.

Overall, the factors driving this round of gold rally have not diminished, and the medium- to long-term support remains. But in the short term, beware of risks like Fed policy shifts, unexpected economic data, and geopolitical changes. Will gold rise? From a fundamental perspective, the supporting factors still exist, but how to operate depends on your risk tolerance and investment horizon.