As DOGE, ETH, and LUNA continue to search for direction at the end of the year, the global macro landscape has quietly shifted. Three signals are redefining the possibilities of the market.

**Signal One: Government Spending Hits Record Highs, Are Layoff Storms Failing?**

Federal employment has decreased by 9%, yet government spending has surged to $7.56 trillion. Behind this paradox is an awkwardness in efficiency reforms—costs are cut in personnel but expenses are higher. Interestingly, while politicians publicly call for reforms, capital flows appear contradictory. Does the expansion in spending suggest the economy is more resilient than expected? Or is it just fiscal inertia? These dynamics could have profound impacts on the divergence between safe-haven assets and risk assets.

**Signal Two: Crypto Payments Are Breaking the Glass Ceiling**

The UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) suddenly approved a crypto payment app. Meanwhile, the US and the Netherlands have also opened related licenses. What does this synchronized move mean? Perhaps regulators are discovering that the infrastructure for crypto payments is far more compatible with traditional financial systems than they initially thought. Will the acceleration of compliance become the next market breakout point?

**Signal Three: Powell’s "Bipartisan Endorsement"**

Interestingly, despite deep political divisions, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s support has crossed party lines. Support among Democrats is 46%, while independents are even higher at 49%. This indicates that markets and political circles are forming a consensus: prudent monetary policy is preferable to aggressive stimulus. If this consensus truly exists, the high-interest-rate environment may last longer than many expect.

**Three Contradictions, Three Questions**

Spending is rising but employment is decreasing—Is the economy strong or weak? Regulations are opening but macro trends are wavering—Can the compliance track withstand the cycle? Leaders hold different positions but Powell remains steady—Will the interest rate environment last longer than anticipated?

These questions have no simple answers, but they are shaping the contours of the market in 2025.