Analysis of Gold Price Trends Over Half a Century | Will the Next 50 Years See Another Golden Bull Market?

Gold has been an important asset in the economy since ancient times. Its high density, strong ductility, and long storage life make it not only a medium of exchange but also suitable for jewelry making and industrial applications. Over the past 50 years, despite frequent fluctuations in gold prices, the overall trend has shown a strong upward movement, even reaching new all-time highs in 2025. So, can this half-century-long bull cycle continue into the next 50 years? How to analyze the gold price trend? Is it more suitable for long-term allocation or swing trading? These questions are worth in-depth discussion.

How astonishing has the gold price increase been over 50 years?

On August 15, 1971, U.S. President Nixon delivered a televised address announcing the suspension of the dollar’s convertibility into gold, officially ending the Bretton Woods system. From that moment on, gold began to float freely.

At that time, the gold price was about $35 per ounce. After more than 50 years of development, by the first half of 2025, the gold price had soared to around $3,700, and recently, in October, it broke through the key level of $4,300 per ounce, creating an unprecedented peak. From 1971 to now, gold has increased by over 120 times.

Particularly noteworthy is the performance in 2024—this year, the gold price increased by over 104%, creating a historic rally. At the beginning of 2025, tensions in the Middle East escalated, the Russia-Ukraine conflict added uncertainty, U.S. trade policy adjustments raised concerns, and global stock markets experienced turbulence—all continuing to push gold prices beyond historical highs.

How does the gold price 10 years ago compare to today?

Ten years ago (around 2015), the international gold price hovered around $1,060 per ounce. Now, it has approached $4,300, a rise of over 300% compared to 10 years ago. During this period, Japan and Europe implemented negative interest rate policies, the global de-dollarization trend intensified, the U.S. launched large-scale QE in 2020, the Russia-Ukraine war occurred, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East increased—all supporting this spectacular rally.

The four major historical upward cycles of gold

First wave (1970-1975): Confidence crisis after decoupling

After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the market was full of doubts about the dollar’s prospects. People preferred holding gold over continuing to hold dollars. Coupled with the oil crisis leading to increased U.S. money issuance, the gold price surged from $35 to $183, an increase of over 400%.

Second wave (1976-1980): Geopolitical shocks

Major events such as the second Middle East oil crisis, the Iran hostage crisis, and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan triggered a global recession and high inflation. Gold prices soared from $104 to $850, an increase of over 700%. After the oil crisis eased, gold prices retreated.

Third wave (2001-2011): Anti-terror wars and financial crisis

The global anti-terror war triggered by 9/11 required huge military spending. The U.S. government cut interest rates and issued bonds, ultimately triggering the 2008 financial crisis. Quantitative easing policies during the crisis pushed gold from $260 to $1,921, an increase of over 700%.

Fourth wave (2015-present): Multiple risks stacking

In the past decade, abundant global liquidity, rising geopolitical risks, central banks increasing gold reserves, and escalating trade frictions have driven the gold price from $1,060 to the current level of $4,300.

Is investing in gold worthwhile?

Over a 50-year span, gold has increased by 120 times, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose from 900 points to around 46,000 points, an increase of about 51 times. In terms of long-term returns, gold is not inferior to stocks. From 2025 to now, gold has risen from $2,690 at the start of the year to $4,200 in October, with a short-term increase of over 56%.

However, the issue is that gold prices do not always rise continuously. Between 1980 and 2000, gold hovered around $200-$300 for nearly 20 years, and investors did not profit. How many 50-year periods can one wait for in life?

Therefore, gold is more suitable for swing trading during clear market trends rather than passive long-term holding. It is worth noting that, as a natural resource, the difficulty and cost of mining increase over time. Even after a bull market ends and prices pull back, the bottom gradually rises, providing risk control basis for swing traders.

Five ways to invest in gold

1. Physical gold

Purchase gold bars and other tangible gold assets. The advantage is easy asset concealment and can be worn as jewelry. The disadvantage is that trading is less convenient.

2. Gold certificates

Bank-issued gold custody certificates. The advantage is easy to carry; the disadvantage is that banks do not pay interest, and the buy-sell spread is large. Suitable for long-term investment.

3. Gold ETFs

Liquidity-rich gold funds. Convenient to trade but require management fees. If gold prices remain stagnant long-term, their value will gradually depreciate.

4. Spot gold and derivatives

Many investors choose spot gold trading or related derivatives for swing trading. These instruments have leverage, can amplify returns, and support both long and short positions. Margin trading costs are low, making them especially suitable for short-term swing trading. Small capital can participate, friendly to small investors and retail traders.

Through T+0 trading mechanisms, investors can enter or exit at any time. Spot gold tools offer real-time quotes, economic calendars, expert forecasts, and risk management tools such as stop profit, stop loss, and trailing stop.

5. Gold futures

Direct participation in the futures market. Leverage amplifies gains, trading costs are relatively low, but require higher professional knowledge.

Comparison of gold vs. stocks vs. bonds

The return mechanisms of the three asset classes differ:

• Gold: Returns mainly from price differences, no interest income, focus on timing entry and exit
• Bonds: Returns from interest payments, need to increase units to expand returns, and require monitoring central bank policies
• Stocks: Returns from corporate growth, suitable for long-term holding of quality companies

In terms of investment difficulty, bonds are the simplest, gold is next, and stocks are the most difficult. Looking at the yields over the past 30 years, stocks performed the best, followed by gold, and bonds the least.

When to allocate gold?

The key to investing in gold is to catch trend reversal points. Usually, gold prices go through a cycle of “bull rally → sharp decline → consolidation → restart of the bull.”

The basic rule is “invest in stocks during economic growth, allocate gold during recession.”

When the economy is good, corporate profits are optimistic, and stocks tend to rise. During economic downturns, stocks lose attractiveness, and gold’s hedging and fixed income features become more valuable.

In the face of unpredictable political and economic emergencies, a more prudent approach is to set reasonable allocation ratios among stocks, bonds, and gold based on individual risk tolerance to hedge against the volatility of any single asset. This asset allocation approach can help investors maintain more stable returns in a rapidly changing market environment.