Gold breaks new records: Will 2025-2026 be a golden year?

From $3,000 at the beginning of the year to $4,000 in just half a year

Who has noticed how quickly gold moved in 2025? Not only did it break through the $4,000 per ounce level, but it also surged to a record high of $4,181 on October 20, 2025. This means a 66% increase since the start of the year, taking only 7 months to rise from $3,000 to $4,000, faster than the 14 months it took to go from $2,000 to $3,000, which doubled the previous increase.

In Thailand, 96.5% pure gold bars have also soared past 62,000 Baht, prompting experts who targeted 55,000 Baht to now look further ahead to 75,000-80,000 Baht.

Why is this happening? Four main factors

1. Trade conflicts: The world seeks new safety assets

Tensions between the US and China have escalated beyond mere disputes to a full-blown trade war. President Trump announced a plan to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese imports starting November 1, 2025, in retaliation for China’s control over rare earth exports. The world is becoming more anxious, leading investors globally to buy gold as a safe haven (Safe Haven)

2. Interest rates make the market float

The Fed began cutting interest rates by 0.25% in September 2025, with expectations of further cuts in October and December. Lower interest rates = weaker dollar = more attractive gold. Why? Because gold prices move inversely to real interest rates (Real Interest Rate). When rates are low, the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases accordingly.

3. Central banks are buying aggressively

This is the strongest reason: central banks, especially in emerging markets, have been net buyers of gold over 1,000 tons annually for three consecutive years (2023-2025), and continue into 2025.

The reason is De-dollarization — freeing themselves from reliance on the US dollar, especially after the Russian central bank’s assets were frozen in 2022. Many countries have realized that putting all eggs in one basket is unwise, and gold has become an alternative.

4. The movement of BRICS

There are reports that BRICS is preparing a digital currency backed by gold (BRICS Digital Currency) for transactions among member countries. This directly challenges the dollar-centric system. Naturally, gold’s value should rise in this scenario.

Wall Street big names remain optimistic “there’s more room to go”

Goldman Sachs: Target $4,900 in 2026

Goldman Sachs has revised its outlook upward from $4,300 to $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026. Analyst Lina Thomas states that the bullish factors include strong demand from central banks and inflows into gold ETFs.

For this year, Goldman Sachs raised its target from 2,890 to 3,300 dollars, driven by higher-than-expected demand from central banks.

UBS: $3,500 by the end of 2025

This Swiss bank expects gold to reach $3,500 per ounce by December 2025. Joni Teves from UBS explains that central bank gold accumulation has never been at this scale before, over 1,200 tons annually — a figure not seen in decades.

Risk factors: Beware of a correction!

Although the overall outlook is bright, the world is not without risks:

• If US-China trade negotiations succeed — conflict has been a primary reason for investors to buy gold. If tensions ease, gold could reverse.

• Profit-taking by investors — prices have surged for 8 consecutive weeks. Those who bought early might start to sell. Technical signals like RSI in overbought zones also indicate risk.

• A stronger dollar — if the US economy outperforms expectations, the Fed might delay rate cuts. A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive.

• High interest rates persist — if inflation remains sticky, the Fed may keep rates high longer. Gold, which does not pay interest, could become less attractive.

What do the charts say? Technical signals

( Price Surge) ≈ Fundamental support for the uptrend

Prices jumped over $250 in just a few days, indicating genuine buying pressure, not just noise. This suggests the bullish trend remains strong.

RSI Indicator: Overbought but still possibly going higher

Currently, RSI is in the overbought zone, implying a short-term correction could occur. However, if RSI stabilizes at this level, it indicates a strong uptrend capable of pushing further despite overbought conditions.

( Three Market Phases: Engagement in progress

According to Market Trend Theory, markets go through three phases: Accumulation )Quiet buying by experts### → Public Participation ###Massive price rally( → Distribution )Quiet selling by experts(. Gold appears to be in the Public Participation phase, so further upside is possible.

) Candlestick Patterns: Shooting Star warns but may be just a pause

A Shooting Star pattern has appeared, which often signals a potential reversal. But in a strong uptrend, such a pattern could merely be a short-term pause.

Three trading strategies for this situation

( 1. Buy the Dip - Enter on pullbacks

Gold is in a strong uptrend but rising rapidly. Consider:

• Waiting for a pullback to the first support level $3,859 )October open### or $3,782 ###strong support(
• Confirm with technicals: RSI near 50 or MACD showing signs
• Set a stop-loss below $3,750
• Take profit at previous high $4,059 or next resistance $4,084-4,113

) 2. Breakout Retest - Test new resistance

Prices just broke above $4,000 (psychological resistance), indicating a possible retest:

• Wait for a pullback to $3,980-4,000
• Expect previous resistance to hold the selling pressure (price rebounds with increased volume)
• Enter on bullish reversal candlestick, with stop below $3,950
• Profit target: above $4,059, aiming for $4,100

( 3. Fibonacci Retracement - Find the weakest support

If you know the starting point of the rally )say, $3,500### and the recent high ($4,059):

• Draw Fibonacci retracement between these points
• Look for support at 38.2% or 61.8% — common retracement levels
• Enter on reversal signals at these levels
• Place stop-loss below the next Fibonacci level

Summary: Gold’s story is not over

Gold prices in 2025-2026 remain in an uptrend. Wall Street targets $4,900, and in Thailand, prices could reach 75,000-80,000 Baht per Baht.

Reasons:

• Ongoing trade conflicts (still unresolved)
• Low interest rates ###not over yet(
• Central banks continue buying )ongoing(
• BRICS still in the early stages )raising questions(

Although technical signals warn of a possible correction and negative factors could emerge, the overall trend for gold prices remains upward.

For traders, consider waiting for a consolidation phase rather than buying at the top now. If entering, prefer to do so on a retest or pullback rather than at current overextended levels.