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A recent important signal has been overlooked by the market. Beijing has adjusted its housing purchase restriction policies—relaxing the conditions for non-registered households to buy homes, reducing the social security and individual tax payment years from 3 to 2, and allowing eligible multi-child families to add an extra property within the current purchase restrictions.
This may seem like a minor adjustment to real estate policies, but the implications are deeper. Since Beijing implemented purchase restrictions in 2011, it wasn't until 2024 that the first easing occurred, followed by a second adjustment now. What does this rhythm indicate? Currently, only three cities across the country still adhere to purchase restrictions—Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen. Guangzhou has already fully lifted them. Looking at this trend, a full relaxation of purchase restrictions is only a matter of time.
Why discuss this? Because it reflects a profound structural shift in China's economy. Over the past twenty years, China's rapid economic growth was largely supported by the real estate market. But now? Real estate is gradually stepping back, and the economy must find new support. What is this new support? The stock market.
2025 will be the most critical year for this transition. At the same time, it could also be the most challenging. Economic restructuring has never been smooth sailing. But the country's stance is very firm—stocks must come alive, and investors must benefit, or there is little hope for economic reversal.
Let's look at the recent market movements. After a high open, the main index fluctuated upward, with trading volume shrinking, yet the index continued to rise. Some conclude that the volume decline indicates insufficient buying, and the main force's willingness to buy is weak—this is the end of a strong bow. This is a sign of being brainwashed by technical indicators.
Actually, trading volume reflects not the strength or weakness of the market, but the degree of market disagreement. Large volume means high disagreement; when disagreement is high, the market's direction is more likely to change. Small volume indicates low disagreement; when disagreement is low, the market tends to continue along its original path. Therefore, a volume-shrinking rally actually indicates strong market consensus.
The upcoming rhythm is as follows: on Thursday, expect the market to oscillate throughout the day, forming a doji pattern, giving the market a chance to adjust and rest. Starting Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index, led by the brokerage sector, will rally again with a strong mid-day positive line, launching an attack toward the 4000-point target.
The logic for going long is very clear. First, focus on the brokerage sector—this is the main driver of the financial market. Second, focus on the technology sector led by artificial intelligence. History has reference value. In 2015, the "Internet" concept swept in, creating a spectacular bull market. In 2025, "artificial intelligence" will also emerge suddenly, creating a new wave of tech bull market. These two themes are the main investment logic throughout the year.
Back at 3000 points, I was fully invested with a firm bullish stance. Up to now, that stance has not changed—still fully invested, still steadfast. How the market will behave or move is up to the market. But once your operation logic is established, you must have patience and resolve to execute it.