2025 Gold Price Trends: 10-Year Gold Price Chart Analysis and Outlook

Long-term Upward Trend of Gold Prices

Gold prices have been steadily rising since last year, and due to increasing global economic uncertainties and international geopolitical instability, they continue to maintain strong upward momentum as of 2025. A 10-year chart of gold prices clearly illustrates the long-term trend of fluctuations, serving as an important reference for future investment decisions. In particular, the recent surge in demand for gold investment is directly linked to this price increase.

Current Domestic and International Gold Prices (As of July 5)

Domestic Prices

According to the Korea Gold Exchange, the domestic gold price is 635,000 won per 3.75g of 1 don(. This represents an approximately 43% increase from 443,000 won at the same time last year, showing significant price growth. The Korea Gold Exchange’s 10-year gold price chart indicates a consistent upward trend until May, suggesting structural strength rather than short-term volatility. However, since May, the pace of increase has somewhat slowed.

International Prices

The international gold price)XAU/USD( stands at $3,337.04 per ounce. This is about 27% higher than at the beginning of the year, and approximately 39% higher compared to the same period one year ago. Considering that we are at the early stage of entering the third quarter, this level of increase is quite visible. Although the current price growth has somewhat eased, there are no clear signals of a significant decline yet.

Key Factors Influencing Gold Price Fluctuations

Domestic and international gold prices tend to move similarly. Therefore, predicting future gold prices requires a comprehensive assessment of global macroeconomic factors.

) Movement to Reduce Dollar Dependence

Many countries worldwide are actively pursuing policies to reduce their dependence on the US dollar in international trade and financial transactions. The core of these efforts is to strengthen economic sovereignty. China continues to promote the internationalization of the yuan and is expanding currency swap agreements to diminish the dollar’s role. India is also promoting increased use of the rupee in transactions with major trading partners.

Reducing reliance on the dollar is also a strategic move to evade US sanctions. Countries under sanctions are trying to maintain economic activity through other currencies or gold instead of the dollar. This reduction in dollar dependence ultimately leads to increased international demand for gold, which is a major driver of rising gold prices.

Geopolitical Tensions Escalation

There is a strong correlation between gold and geopolitical risks. As an archetypal safe-haven asset, demand for gold increases as international instability intensifies.

Historically, during the 2008 global financial crisis, fears of a collapse in the financial system caused gold prices to surge. Similarly, during the European debt crisis in 2011, investor funds flocked to gold, causing prices to skyrocket. In 2020, amid the COVID-19 pandemic, economic uncertainty peaked, and gold prices hit record highs.

Recent increases in global shocks such as US-China trade conflicts, the Russia-Ukraine war, and instability in the Middle East provide important context for the current rise in gold prices.

Concerns Over Weakening Economies in Developed Countries

The potential economic slowdown in major developed nations also triggers gold demand. Gold demonstrates its value as a safe asset during times of high economic uncertainty.

Currently, the US faces inflationary pressures, while Europe is concerned about the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war and weakening growth drivers. These economic difficulties enhance gold’s appeal as an inflation hedge and safe asset.

Rate Cut Cycle

Decisions by central banks to cut interest rates directly impact gold prices. When interest rates fall, yields on interest-bearing assets like deposits and bonds decrease, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold. This naturally increases demand for gold.

Furthermore, rate cuts are generally interpreted as signals of economic weakness or recession fears, prompting investors to shift funds into safe assets like gold. The case of the Federal Reserve’s 50 basis point cut in September last year, which led to a sharp rise in gold prices, clearly illustrates this relationship.

Gold Price Outlook for 2025

Market Experts’ Predictions and Assessments

Many financial industry experts and analysts forecast continued growth in gold prices through 2025.

According to forecasts compiled by the Financial Times at the beginning of the year, bank and refinery estimates predicted gold would reach $2,795 per ounce by the end of the year. However, the current price of $3,337 already significantly exceeds this estimate.

JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and CitiGroup initially set a target of $3,000 per ounce for 2025, which has already been achieved. Notably, JPMorgan revised its target upward to $3,675 per ounce in a report on July 1. Considering that more than five months remain until the end of the year and the current price has already surpassed $3,300, the likelihood of this forecast materializing is quite high.

Conversely, Barclays and Macquarie predicted a decline to around $2,500 per ounce by the end of 2025. This would imply about a 25% decrease from current levels, but given the current market conditions, such a drop seems unlikely.

Late 2025 Scenario

Overall, the gold price is likely to maintain its upward momentum throughout 2025. However, some experts mention the possibility of technical corrections in the second half of 2025, so implementing proper risk management strategies is essential when investing. It is also advisable to review long-term positioning by referring to the 10-year gold price trend graph.