ADA, on-chain data indicates a reversal signal... Scenario of attempting to regain $0.50

Market Indicators Improve: Cardano(ADA) is breaking out of its weekly decline, signaling a bullish reversal. As of Thursday, it is trading around $0.43, with on-chain accumulation patterns and derivatives funding rate improvements occurring simultaneously, highlighting a clear bottoming process.

Technical Turning Point: After successfully defending the lower support line of the falling wedge pattern, a rebound has begun. Whether this upward movement can break through the psychological resistance at $0.50 is expected to be a crucial point for a trend reversal.

On-Chain Flow Changes: Signal of Smart Money Entry

Analysis of CryptoQuant data shows that recently, the supply-demand structure in Cardano’s spot and futures markets has undergone a noticeable change. As large whale funds increase buy orders, signs of overheating are subsiding, which is interpreted as a typical accumulation pattern at the bottom.

Particularly noteworthy is the psychological reversal in the derivatives market. Looking at CoinGlass’s funding rate indicator, it turned positive on Wednesday, reaching about 0.0074% on Thursday. This indicates a strong buying sentiment, with long position holders paying short position holders, reflecting increased bullish expectations.

Historical cases show that when ADA’s funding rate shifts from negative to positive, short-term rallies often follow. While it is uncertain whether this movement will lead to a sustained upward trend, market participants in the futures market are increasingly placing more weight on the possibility of a technical rebound rather than further decline.

Technical Analysis: Pattern Support Success and Upward Scenario Development

On the daily chart, Cardano successfully defended the lower trendline of the ‘Falling Wedge’ pattern last Saturday after testing it. Since then, it has gained approximately 9% over four days, recovering to its current level.

Upside Scenario: If this rebound continues, the first target is the resistance around $0.49. Breaking this level decisively on a closing basis could open the next target at the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $0.56. Technical indicators are also signaling positive momentum: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has escaped oversold territory and risen to 34, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has formed a golden cross, indicating a buy signal.

Downside Scenario: Conversely, if the broader market undergoes a deep correction, retesting the wedge’s lower support line seems inevitable. In this case, $0.39 could serve as the final defense line, and whether this level holds will likely be a key factor for short-term traders in deciding stop-losses and reentries.