Recently, whenever you open any market software, you can see overwhelming headlines like 'Halving Countdown' and 'Halving Will Surely Cause a Surge'. The market atmosphere has been hyped up to this point, and many people are weighing whether to go all in. But don't rush to act just yet. Having been in this market for many years, my conclusion is: halving indeed presents opportunities, but 99% of retail investors haven't seen through what’s really behind the 'celebration'. Once you hit a雷 (trap), you'll go from eating profits to getting cut out of your position.

Let's talk about the first pitfall. Many believe that on the day of halving, supply drops significantly, and the price immediately skyrockets. That's overthinking it. Supply contraction's impact on price isn't instant; this is called the 'lag effect'. Looking at past data, after the last halving, the price didn't rise immediately; it took 23 days before it truly started to climb. Why? Simply put, demand response is sluggish. On halving day, the market will see a wave of profit-taking—after all, all the 'good news' has been priced in—short-term demand can't keep up, and prices tend to fall. It takes new money coming in to absorb this reduced supply before the price can truly start to move upward.

The second risk is even more hidden. On the surface, demand data looks decent; in the past 30 days, trading volume on mainstream exchanges increased by 25%. But if you break down the data, 60% of that volume is from leverage trading, not genuine spot buying. Leverage demand is very short-term and fragile. When the market shows any signs of turbulence, leverage positions will be liquidated en masse, and the price could plummet straight down.