Gold prospects in 2026.. Is it approaching the $5000 level?

Gold market experienced dramatic developments during 2025, with the price breaking the $4,300 per ounce barrier in mid-October before sharply retreating toward $4,000 in November. This sharp volatility raises a central question: Will gold prices rise in the coming days to surpass these barriers or enter a stabilization phase? The answer lies in understanding the economic and geopolitical factors governing the movement of this precious metal.

Factors Supporting a New Rise

Growing Investment Demand

From January to September 2025, ETF gold fund inflows reached a record $21 billion in just the first half. Assets under management increased to $472 billion with holdings of 3,838 tons, up 6% from the previous quarter. This figure approaches the historic peak of 3,929 tons, reflecting an unprecedented level of investor appetite.

Bloomberg data indicates that about 28% of new investors in developed markets added gold to their portfolios for the first time last year. These investors maintained their positions even during correction periods, indicating a strategic shift towards the metal as a long-term hedge rather than just a short-term speculative tool.

Central Banks’ Pivotal Role

Global central banks added 244 tons of gold in Q1 2025, a 24% increase over the five-year average. The list of countries holding gold reserves expanded, with the percentage rising from 37% in 2024 to 44% of global central banks in 2025.

China led this trend, adding over 65 tons for the second consecutive month. Turkey increased its reserves to over 600 tons, while India continued its acquisition campaign. These moves reflect a growing desire to diversify assets away from the US dollar amid an environment of financial uncertainty.

Major Analysts’ 2026 Outlooks

Leading investment banks’ forecasts are ambitious:

HSBC expects prices to surge toward $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2026, with an average annual price estimated at $4,600.

Bank of America raised its target to $5,000 as a potential peak but warned of a possible short-term correction due to profit-taking. The expected average is around $4,400.

Goldman Sachs revised its 2026 forecast to $4,900, citing continued strong inflows into gold ETFs amid ongoing central bank purchases.

J.P. Morgan projected prices reaching approximately $5,055 by mid-2026.

The most common range among analysts is between $4,800 and $5,000 as resistance levels, with an expected average between $4,200 and $4,800 throughout the year.

Economic and Monetary Context

Interest Rate Declines

The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates twice, the last in October 2025 by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00%. Traders anticipate a third cut at the December 2025 meeting by the same margin. BlackRock reports suggest the Fed may target a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2026.

This scenario reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold, boosting its appeal as a non-yielding asset. Real yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell from 4.6% in Q1 to 4.07% in November 2025.

Weakening Dollar

The dollar index declined about 7.64% from its peak in early 2025 to November 21, 2025. This decline makes gold more attractive to foreign investors, especially in emerging markets.

Inflationary Pressures and Debt

Despite the International Bank’s forecast of easing inflationary pressures in 2026, global public debt has surpassed 100% of GDP. This prompts investors to seek safe-haven assets, with gold at the forefront.

Bloomberg Economics data shows that about 42% of major hedge funds increased their gold holdings during Q3 2025.

Geopolitical Exposure

Increasing Global Tensions

Demand for gold rose by 7% year-over-year in 2025 due to geopolitical uncertainty. US-China trade conflicts, rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait, and energy supply concerns all drove investors toward safe havens.

When tensions escalated in July 2025, spot prices jumped above $3,400. As uncertainty persisted, prices exceeded $4,300 in mid-October 2025.

Supply and Production Side

Mine production hit a record 856 tons in Q1 2025, a modest 1% increase year-over-year. This limited growth failed to bridge the gap between rising demand and limited supply.

An additional factor exacerbating scarcity: recycled gold decreased by 1% during the same period. Gold owners preferred to hold onto their holdings amid expectations of continued price increases, deepening the supply-demand gap.

Operating costs in the mining industry surged sharply. The global average extraction cost reached $1,470 per ounce in mid-2025, the highest in a decade. This limits producers’ expansion and reinforces supply scarcity.

Potential Correction Scenarios

Despite the positive outlook, HSBC warns of a possible loss of upward momentum in H2 2026. Prices could retreat toward $4,200 per ounce amid widespread profit-taking. However, a drop below $3,800 is unlikely unless a major economic shock occurs.

Goldman Sachs indicated that sustained prices above $4,800 could test the market’s “price credibility,” especially with weakening industrial demand.

J.P. Morgan and Deutsche Bank analysts agree that gold has entered a new price zone that is difficult to break downward, thanks to strategic shifts in investor perception.

Middle East Outlook

Egypt

Egypt’s central bank gold reserves are trending upward. The forecast suggests the price could reach around 522,580 EGP per ounce, a 158.46% increase from current levels.

Saudi Arabia and UAE

If gold prices approach $5,000 per ounce as optimistic scenarios suggest, the price in Saudi Arabia could reach approximately 18,750 to 19,000 SAR (at an exchange rate of 3.75-3.80 SAR per USD). In the UAE, it might be around 18,375 to 19,000 AED per ounce.

These estimates assume stable exchange rates and continued global demand without major economic fluctuations.

Technical Picture

Gold closed on November 21, 2025, at $4,065.01 per ounce after touching a high of $4,381.44 on October 20, 2025.

The price broke above an ascending channel on the daily chart but still maintains the main short- and medium-term uptrend line. Strong support is seen at $4,000, a critical zone for determining correction direction.

The RSI remains at 50, indicating neutrality without overbought or oversold conditions. The MACD signal line stays above zero, confirming the overall bullish trend.

Technical analysis suggests continued sideways trading within a mildly upward sloping range between $4,000 and $4,220 in the near term. The overall picture remains positive as long as the price stays above the main trendline without a sharp decline in trading volumes.

Summary

Will gold prices rise in the coming days? The indicators strongly lean toward yes. The combination of record investment demand, ongoing central bank purchases, declining interest rates, a weakening dollar, and persistent geopolitical tensions creates a favorable environment to surpass new levels in 2026.

The targeted range between $4,800 and $5,000 appears realistic based on economic fundamentals. However, investors should be prepared for short-term volatility and correction phases possibly down to $4,200 before resuming the upward trend.

In a world of expanding economic and political uncertainty, gold remains the primary safe haven relied upon as protection against the risks of the new world.