Grasp the release time of the US CPI and seize the key window for inflation trends in 2024

Why Must Investors Pay Attention to the US CPI Release Schedule?

As the world’s most important inflation indicator, the US CPI (Consumer Price Index) data release time often precedes the Fed’s decision-making index, the PCE. Therefore, it becomes the market’s most sensitive expectation turning point. Whenever the US CPI release time approaches, major asset classes experience volatility—stocks, exchange rates, commodity futures—all without exception. This is not coincidence but a market reaction in advance of the Fed’s possible policy shift.

Complete Schedule for US CPI Releases in 2024

The US CPI is usually released on the first business day of each month or the closest business day, with specific times varying due to daylight saving time:

During Daylight Saving Time (Taiwan Time 20:30)

• April 10, May 15, June 12, July 11, August 14, September 11, October 10

During Standard Time (Taiwan Time 21:30)

• January 11, February 13, March 12, November 13, December 11

Investors should pay special attention to these times, as once the US CPI data is released, significant asset price fluctuations often follow.

Key Differences in Interpreting US CPI, Core CPI, and PCE

US CPI vs. Core CPI: One includes food and energy, the other excludes

US CPI covers all consumption items, including the most volatile food and energy prices, thus being more affected by these fluctuating factors. Core CPI deliberately excludes food and energy, allowing investors to see underlying inflation pressures more clearly. In simple terms, CPI is a “panoramic view,” while Core CPI is a “noise-filtered image.”

US CPI vs. PCE: Different calculation methods, different application scenarios

CPI uses a fixed-weight method, while PCE employs chain-weighting. This means that when oil prices surge, PCE can better reflect consumer substitution behavior and automatically adjust weights. In contrast, CPI’s weights are more fixed, leading to greater volatility. For investors, US CPI release times are earlier, and market reactions are more sensitive; but for Fed policymakers, the more scientific PCE index is the core basis for interest rate decisions.

Year-over-year vs. Month-over-month: Stability wins

“Year-over-year” compares the current data to the same period last year, eliminating seasonal effects and better reflecting true inflation trends. “Month-over-month” is more susceptible to short-term fluctuations. Therefore, investors should focus on the US CPI year-over-year and PCE year-over-year indicators.

Deep Dive into the Composition of US CPI

US CPI is composed of the following major categories:

• Housing-related (30–40%): The largest share, including rent and housing prices, the key driver of inflation
• Food and beverages (13–15%): The second largest, directly reflecting global supply chain fluctuations
• Energy (6–8%): Smaller share but most volatile, often causing sharp changes in inflation expectations
• Medical care (7–9%): A US-specific item with a clear long-term upward trend
• New and used cars (5–8%): Reflects the auto industry chain, closely related to chip shortages
• Transportation services (5–6%): Includes air and road transportation, directly linked to global logistics costs
• Other items (education, communication, clothing, etc.): Smaller proportion but also worth tracking

Understanding these weights allows investors to anticipate which sectors’ price fluctuations will most directly impact the data after the US CPI release.

Two Core Factors Driving US CPI Changes in 2024

Factor One: Political Risks in a US Election Year

The US presidential election will be held in November 2024. Regardless of the candidate elected, campaign promises often lead to excessive stimulus policies. Coupled with escalating geopolitical conflicts, the US may accelerate de-globalization, with tariffs and supply chain restructuring pushing prices higher. This means the US CPI year-over-year growth rate may not decline smoothly as market expectations suggest.

Factor Two: Uncertainty in the Fed’s Rate Cut Pace

Based on CME futures market predictions for the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate levels at the end of 2024, the market expects about 6 basis points of rate cuts throughout the year. However, this depends on actual CPI data performance. If US CPI remains high, the Fed’s rate cut pace will slow; otherwise, it may accelerate. Therefore, each US CPI release time becomes an opportunity for the market to reprice future interest rate paths.

Historical Lessons: Four Major Cycles of US CPI in the Past 30 Years

First Cycle (July 1990 – March 1991)

US savings and loan crisis combined with Gulf War oil shocks caused CPI to decline rapidly, leading to an economic recession.

Second Cycle (September 2000 – October 2001)

Dot-com bubble burst and 9/11 attacks hit the US economy, CPI entered a downward cycle.

Third Cycle (January 2008 – June 2009)

Subprime mortgage crisis erupted fully, financial system nearly collapsed, CPI plummeted.

Fourth Cycle (March 2020 – Present)

Most relevant. COVID-19 pandemic caused short-term economic halt, CPI dropped sharply. But with large-scale easing by the Fed, CPI surged to 40-year highs from late 2020 to June 2022. As the pandemic receded and logistics recovered, CPI began to decline from mid-2022.

Key Observation: Global logistics costs have a far greater impact on US inflation than expected. The end-of-2023 Red Sea crisis again disrupted logistics, with Asia-Europe shipping rates rising over 100% in the short term. Although the impact is less than the Suez Canal incident in 2021, regional logistics disruptions will eventually transmit to consumer prices, which warrants ongoing attention.

Three-Stage Forecast Framework for US CPI in 2024

Fundamental Outlook: US Economy Remains Resilient

According to IMF’s latest forecast, US economic growth in 2024 will be 2.1%, ranking second among major economies worldwide, above the Eurozone’s 0.9%. This indicates a tight labor market, wage pressures, and difficulty in quickly reducing inflation.

Price Drivers: Commodities Bottoming Out

In the first half of 2023, crude oil and other commodities experienced oscillations downward, creating a low base. Entering 2024, crude oil inventories began to decline, with oil prices facing support. This will weaken the rapid downward momentum of CPI in the first half.

Expected Trend Conclusion

Combining these factors, we expect US CPI in 2024 to follow a “U-shaped” trajectory:

• Bottom in Q1: Due to low base effects from 2023, January CPI may still show year-over-year increases
• Rebound in Q2: US election risks, geopolitical conflicts boosting oil and gas prices, rising logistics costs will exert upward pressure from April to June
• Decline in H2: As base effects fade and Fed policy framework becomes clearer, CPI is expected to decline again after July

This trajectory will put pressure on US stocks, as higher-than-expected CPI will delay market expectations for rate cuts.

Practical Investment Guide

The US CPI release schedule repeats monthly. Investors should establish a response process:

1. One week ahead: Review previous month’s data, adjust expectations
2. 24 hours before release: Reduce position exposure to avoid being hit by sudden volatility
3. At release: Focus on the deviation between actual data and expectations, not just the absolute value
4. Post-release: Observe market re-pricing of Fed policy path, adjust asset allocation

In short, the 2024 US CPI trend is expected to follow the main tone of decline but will face rebound disturbances in Q2. Mastering the CPI release schedule, understanding indicator differences, and recognizing historical patterns are key to seizing opportunities amid inflation expectations’ volatile changes.