Will the price of gold rise in 2026? Predictions point to new all-time highs

What is happening to gold now?

In 2025, the gold market experienced a significant shift, starting the year at an average quarterly price of $3,455, then surging to an unexpected peak of $4,381 per ounce in mid-October. It later retreated to close November at $4,065. This volatility does not reflect weak demand but indicates a struggle between profit-taking and new institutional buying waves.

Data from the World Gold Council reveal that total demand in Q2 2025 reached 1,249 tons (up 3% annually), valued at $132 billion (up 45%). Gold ETFs attracted substantial funds, raising assets under management to $472 billion.

Key factors driving prices

Investment demand exceeds supply

Total holdings of global gold ETFs approached a record high of 3,838 tons (up 6% from the previous quarter), while mine production increased only slightly by 1% annually (just 856 tons in Q1 2025). Recycled gold decreased by 1%, as individuals prefer to hold onto their assets awaiting higher prices.

Central banks keep buying

Central banks added 244 tons in Q1 2025 (up 24% from the five-year average), with China alone adding 65 tons for the 22nd consecutive month. Currently, 44% of central banks worldwide hold gold reserves, up from 37% in 2024. This support is expected to continue until the end of 2026.

Weak dollar and declining yields

The dollar index fell 7.64% from its peak at the start of the year through November 2025, while 10-year US bond yields dropped from 4.6% to 4.07%. This combination makes gold an attractive option compared to dollar-denominated assets.

Ongoing geopolitical tensions

Trade conflicts between the US and China, along with tensions in the Middle East and Taiwan, increased safe-haven demand by 7% year-over-year. As situations worsen, prices tend to spike sharply.

Federal Reserve outlook and monetary policy

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October 2025 (to 3.75-4.00%), and derivatives markets price in a third cut coming in December 2025. BlackRock reports suggest the possibility of reaching 3.4% by the end of 2026 in a moderate scenario.

The European Central Bank and Bank of Japan continue easing policies, supporting gold globally due to weakness in local currencies.

What do analysts say about 2026?

HSBC expects gold to reach $5,000 in the first half of 2026, with an annual average of $4,600.

Bank of America also raised its forecast to $5,000 as a potential peak, with an average of $4,400, but warned of a short-term correction if profit-taking begins.

Goldman Sachs revised its estimate to $4,900 per ounce, supported by strong inflows into gold funds and ongoing central bank purchases.

J.P. Morgan expects gold to reach $5,055 by mid-2026.

The most common range among analysts: 4800-5000 dollars as a peak, and 4200-4800 dollars as an annual average.

What about potential corrections?

HSBC warned of a possible correction toward $4,200 in the second half of 2026, but ruled out a drop below 3800 dollars unless a major economic shock occurs.

Goldman Sachs indicated that staying above 4800 dollars puts markets to a test of price credibility.

J.P. Morgan and Deutsche Bank see that gold has entered a new price zone that is difficult to break downward due to investors’ strategic shift toward gold as a long-term asset.

Technical analysis at the start of 2026

Gold maintains strong support at $4,000, a critical level. Breaking below targets $3,800 (50% Fibonacci), while breaking above $4,200 opens the way toward $4,400 and $4,680.

The RSI indicator at 50 indicates neutrality (no overbought or oversold).

MACD remains above zero, confirming the overall bullish trend.

The technical picture suggests a short-term sideways upward range between $4,000-$4,220, with the primary trend remaining bullish as long as gold stays above the main trendline.

What about the Arab region?

Egypt: Based on global forecasts, the price could reach approximately 522,580 EGP per ounce (up 158.46% from current prices).

Saudi Arabia and UAE: If we translate the $5,000 forecast:

• Saudi Arabia: approximately 18,750-19,000 SAR
• UAE: approximately 18,375-19,000 AED

(These estimates depend on stable exchange rates and continued global demand)

Summary

Gold price forecasts for 2026 appear strongly bullish, driven by central banks, new investors, and geopolitical tensions. Gold is expected to test levels of 4800-5000 dollars, but short-term corrections around 4200 dollars are possible.

The key factors are stable real yields and a weak dollar. If inflation recedes quickly and market confidence returns, gold may enter a stabilization phase preventing the achievement of the 5000-dollar target.

Investors can benefit from gold movements through physical bullion purchases, gold ETFs, mining stocks, or CFDs (CFDs), though the latter require caution due to high risks.