Gold Price Predictions Until 2026: Will It Reach New Record Highs?

The Gold Path in 2025: An Exciting Rise Story, where prices started from an average of $3,455 per ounce and jumped to over $4,300 in mid-October, before experiencing a correction to $4,000 in November. This volatility raises a fundamental question: Are we heading toward $5,000 in 2026, or are there obstacles that could prevent that?

Factors Supporting Gold Price Growth in 2026

Investment demand and gold exchange-traded funds

Global demand for gold is experiencing extraordinary dynamics, with total demand in Q2 2025 reaching 1,249 tons, up 3% year-over-year, but valued at over $132 billion, a 45% increase. The numbers tell a clear story: new investors are entering the market strongly.

Data from gold ETFs (ETFs) show massive inflows, with assets under management reaching $472 billion, and holdings increasing to 3,838 tons, up 6% from the previous quarter. This approaches a historic peak estimated at 3,929 tons. Geographically, North America led demand with 345.7 tons out of a total of 618.8 tons, followed by Europe with 148.4 tons and Asia with 117.8 tons.

The most indicative indicator: 28% of new investors in developed markets added gold to their portfolios for the first time last year, and they have maintained their positions even during correction periods, reflecting deep confidence rather than quick speculation.

Central banks continue buying at an enhanced pace

At the institutional level, central banks added 244 tons in Q1 2025 alone, a 24% increase over the five-year average. More importantly, 44% of central banks worldwide now manage gold reserves, up from 37% in 2024, reflecting a strategic shift toward diversification away from the dollar.

China leads this wave, with the People’s Bank of China adding over 65 tons, continuing its expansion for the twenty-second consecutive month. Turkey increased its reserves to over 600 tons, and India gradually increases its holdings. This pattern will not stop in 2026, as the desire to reduce dependence on the US dollar remains strong.

Supply deficit pushes prices higher

Mine production hit a record 856 tons in Q1 2025, but this slight increase of 1% year-over-year is not enough to bridge the gap between rising demand and supply. Even worse, recycled gold declined by 1% during the same period, as owners preferred to hold onto their assets expecting further increases.

Rising extraction costs compound the issue. The average global extraction cost reached about $1,470 per ounce in mid-2025, the highest in a decade. This limits producers’ ability to ramp up output quickly, sustaining the deficit and pushing prices upward.

Monetary policy: The hidden support for gold

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates in October 2025 by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75-4.00%, marking the second cut since December 2024. Market expectations price in a third cut of 25 basis points in December 2025. This easing trend directly benefits gold.

BlackRock reports suggest the Fed could target an interest rate of 3.4% by the end of 2026 in a moderate scenario. If achieved, real yields on bonds will decline, reducing the opportunity cost of investing in interest-free gold.

Other major central banks are moving in the same direction. The European Central Bank and Bank of Japan maintain or strengthen easing policies. This globally loose monetary environment creates ideal conditions for gold to rise.

Tensions and uncertainties: Geopolitical drivers

Trade conflicts between the US and China and Middle East tensions have driven investors to seek gold as a safe haven. Reuters reported that geopolitical uncertainty in 2025 increased demand by 7% year-over-year alone.

Escalating tensions in the Taiwan Strait and energy supply fears sent spot prices above $3,400 in July 2025, later surpassing $4,300 in October. This historical pattern shows how quickly gold responds to crises. In 2026, any new geopolitical shock could push prices to record levels rapidly.

The dollar and bond yields: The inverse relationship

The dollar index declined about 7.64% from its peak in early 2025 to November 21, 2025. US 10-year bond yields fell from 4.6% in Q1 to around 4.07% on November 21. This dual decline created an ideal environment for gold to rise.

Bank of America analysts see this trend supporting expectations for 2026, especially with real yields stabilizing near 1.2%. The continued weakness of the dollar due to easing monetary policy could keep gold in a sustainable upward range.

Debt and inflation: The never-ending concern

Global public debt exceeds 100% of GDP, according to the IMF. This raises serious concerns about fiscal sustainability, prompting investors to seek protection in gold.

The World Bank estimated that gold prices increased by 35% in 2025 but forecast a slowdown in inflationary pressures in 2026. Nonetheless, prices will remain high compared to previous years. About 42% of major hedge funds increased their gold holdings in Q3 2025 as a hedge against long-term financial risks.

Major investment bank forecasts

Consensus among top analysts points to a varied but ambitious range:

• HSBC: expects gold to reach $5,000 in the first half of 2026, with an annual average of $4,600
• Bank of America: raised expectations to $5,000 as a potential peak, with an average of $4,400 and warnings of short-term corrections
• Goldman Sachs: adjusted forecast to $4,900 per ounce, citing strong inflows into gold ETFs
• J.P. Morgan: expects gold to reach around $5,055 by mid-2026

The most common range among analysts is between $4,800 and $5,000 as a peak, with an average between $4,200 and $4,800 for the year.

Gold price forecasts in local markets

In Egypt, CoinCodex forecasts suggest gold could reach approximately 522,580 EGP per ounce, representing a 158.46% increase compared to current prices.

Translating the global forecast ($5,000 per ounce) into Saudi Arabia at a fixed exchange rate, levels close to 18,750 to 19,000 SAR might be seen. In the UAE, the same translation could give an estimate around 18,375 to 19,000 AED per ounce.

Obstacles on the road: Potential corrections

Despite the optimistic outlook, real risks exist:

HSBC warned that upward momentum might weaken in the second half of 2026, with a correction possibly down to $4,200 if investors take profits, but excluding a drop below $3,800 unless a major economic shock occurs.

Goldman Sachs cautioned that sustained prices above $4,800 could test the “credibility” of the market—that is, the ability of gold to maintain high levels amid weak industrial demand.

Nevertheless, J.P. Morgan and Deutsche Bank analysts affirm that gold has entered a new price zone that is difficult to break downward, thanks to a strategic shift in investor perception of it as a long-term asset.

Technical picture: What does technical analysis say?

Gold closed on November 21, 2025, at $4,065.01, after touching a high of $4,381.44 on October 20, 2025. The upward channel line on the daily chart has been broken, but the main short- to medium-term uptrend line remains intact.

The $4,000 support level is strong and a critical threshold. Breaking below it with a clear daily close could target $3,800 (50% Fibonacci retracement). On the upside, $4,200 is the first strong resistance, followed by $4,400 and $4,680.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is steady at 50, indicating neutrality. The MACD confirms the overall bullish trend. Gold is expected to trade within a sideways upward-sloping range between $4,000 and $4,220 in the near term, with a positive outlook as long as it remains above the main trend line.

How to capitalize on gold movements

There are several ways to invest in gold and benefit from its movements: physical purchase of gold bars, investment in gold ETFs, buying mining stocks, or trading CFDs (CFDs).

CFDs offer a flexible way to speculate on gold prices but involve significant risks. Choosing a secure and reliable trading platform is crucial, one that offers strong security controls, multiple withdrawal and deposit options, 24/7 customer support, and training on trading strategies and risk management.

Summary: What to expect from gold in 2026?

Gold price forecasts for 2026 reflect a delicate balance between strong bullish forces and potential obstacles. Fundamental data support further gains: record investment demand, ongoing central bank purchases, supply deficits, easing monetary policies, and continued dollar weakness.

If real yields keep declining and the dollar remains weak, gold is poised to hit new all-time highs approaching $5,000. However, if market confidence returns and inflation drops sharply, the metal may stabilize, delaying the achievement of ambitious levels.

The reality is that current gold price expectations heavily depend on how global economic and geopolitical events unfold over the coming months. Close monitoring of economic indicators and monetary policy decisions will be key to understanding the true path this precious metal will take.