Recently, I’ve been chatting with many institutional investors, and everyone is asking the same question: Is the four-year cycle of Bitcoin's "rise for three years, fall in the fourth" still reliable?

This issue is indeed worth serious consideration. According to this logic, the crypto market will be quite tough next year. But honestly, blindly believing that cycles will mechanically repeat is too naive. After all, this pattern is not an iron law but is formed by the overlay of three specific factors.

First is Bitcoin halving—the mining reward is cut in half every four years, which does shake up the market. Second is interest rate fluctuations—two rate hike cycles in 2018 and 2022 have both had a substantial impact on the market.

However, the power of these driving factors is now much weaker than before. As institutional funds flood in and industry regulation gradually improves, the overall market operation logic is undergoing profound changes. It is evolving from short-term volatility trading to a more stable, long-term asset allocation process. Investors need to abandon old thinking and adopt a new framework to understand this decade.