2025 Aluminum Market Analysis: Price Trends and Investment Opportunities

Aluminum is a key raw material that plays a central role in modern industry. Its lightweight, durable, and easily recyclable properties continue to drive demand across a wide range of fields such as aerospace, automotive, construction, and electronics industries. Let’s analyze how the aluminum market is changing in 2025 and how prices are expected to move in the future.

The Industrial Importance of Aluminum

Aluminum, one of the most abundant metal resources on Earth, ranks third in abundance after oxygen and silicon. Compared to iron, it weighs about one-third but maintains the same strength, with excellent thermal and electrical conductivity, and strong corrosion resistance.

Its excellent workability allows it to be manufactured into various forms, making it widely used in transportation equipment such as aircraft, ships, and automobiles, as well as in architectural interior and exterior materials. It can also be found in everyday life, including kitchenware, household items, sports equipment, and industrial parts.

2024 Aluminum Price Trend Analysis

Over the past year, the aluminum market has shown a clear upward trajectory. The price of aluminum, which was $2,179 per ton in February at the beginning of the year, has risen to $2,655 as of February 2025, an increase of approximately 21.84%. This indicates a steady monthly increase of about 1.75%.

Monthly Price Fluctuation Trend:

• February 2024: $2,179
• March 2024: $2,229 (about 2.3% increase)
• April 2024: $2,499 (about 12% increase)
• May 2024: $2,566
• June 2024: $2,497
• July 2024: $2,349 (about 5.9% decrease)
• August 2024: $2,352
• September 2024: $2,457
• October 2024: $2,595 (yearly high)
• November 2024: $2,582
• December 2024: $2,540
• January 2025: $2,571
• February 2025: $2,655

###Factors Driving Price Increases in 2024

The price rise between March and April 2024 coincided with a surge in electricity demand driven by the AI boom. The demand for aluminum, a key raw material for wiring, increased significantly, and the outlook for China’s full-scale electric vehicle production also acted as a positive factor. During this period, aluminum prices increased by about 12%.

However, from June to July, prices experienced a correction of about 5.9% due to concerns over global economic slowdown and a downturn in China’s real estate market. Nonetheless, the market recovered quickly afterward, reaching a yearly high of $2,595 per ton in October.

Major Factors Influencing Aluminum Prices

To understand the aluminum market, it’s essential to identify the various factors influencing price fluctuations.

Tariff Policies: Major countries, including the US, are tightening tariffs on low-cost imports. This restricts global aluminum supply and exerts upward pressure on prices.

Geopolitical Risks: The Russia-Ukraine conflict affects the supply of Russian aluminum. The prolongation or resolution of the war can significantly alter supply chains, increasing market volatility.

Economic Cycles: When the global economy enters a recession, demand in construction, automotive, and aerospace industries declines, exerting downward pressure on aluminum prices.

Environmental Regulations: Stricter carbon emission regulations increase production costs for aluminum. Transitioning to eco-friendly smelting technologies also adds costs, which are reflected in final prices.

Energy Markets: Aluminum smelting is an energy-intensive industry. Rising energy prices directly increase production costs and push prices higher.

Aluminum Price Outlook for 2025

Currently, aluminum prices are stable around $2,600 per ton. Based on the market situation up to March, there is a possibility of additional upward movement in the first half of the year.

Industry analysis suggests that concerns over supply due to strengthened tariffs could reignite, and aluminum prices may fluctuate within the range of $2,500 to $3,000 per ton throughout the year. Given current levels, reaching $3,000 is quite possible, though high volatility is expected.

Investors may consider a wait-and-see approach until a clear market trend emerges, along with strategies to profit from both rising and falling markets.

Practical Investment Method for Aluminum: CFD Trading

What is CFD

To invest in aluminum without the hassle of physical trading, you can utilize CFD( Contract For Difference) products.

CFD is a trading method where you do not own the actual commodity but settle only the price difference between the opening and closing prices. If an individual investor wants to purchase physical aluminum, additional costs such as storage and transportation fees are incurred, which can be burdensome for those seeking profit from price movements. Using CFDs allows focusing solely on price volatility without these costs.

###Advantages of CFD Trading

Bidirectional Profit Structure: If you expect aluminum prices to rise, you can take a long position; if you expect them to fall, you can take a short position. This means you can strategically profit even in choppy or sideways markets.

Leverage Usage: The most attractive feature of CFDs is leverage, which allows trading with a larger position than your actual capital. For example, using 1:10 leverage, you can buy 1 ton of aluminum worth $2,655 for about $265. This significantly reduces required capital while increasing potential returns.

However, leverage is a double-edged sword. While it increases profit opportunities, it also amplifies potential losses. The higher the leverage, the greater the risk of significant losses, so always use leverage within your risk tolerance.

###Getting Started with CFD Trading

To start CFD trading, you need to open an account with a brokerage or trading platform that offers these products. When choosing a reliable global trading platform, consider user interface convenience, availability of various technical indicators, and compatibility with both mobile and PC.

After opening an account, you can place orders via mobile or PC trading systems. The core of aluminum CFD trading is accurately predicting the price direction. If you expect prices to rise, buy; if you expect them to fall, sell.

###Key Elements for Successful CFD Trading

To generate actual profits, follow some basic principles.

Continuous Market Monitoring: Aluminum prices are influenced by various variables. It’s important to stay updated with market news, tariff announcements, economic indicators, and analyze them in real-time.

Technical Analysis: Use chart patterns, moving averages, RSI( Relative Strength Index), and other technical indicators to identify short-term trends.

Fundamental Analysis: Consider supply-demand structures, industry cycles, and macroeconomic conditions to determine medium- and long-term directions.

Risk Management: Set a maximum loss limit per trade and strictly adhere to it. Avoid emotional trading and follow pre-planned strategies.

Conclusion

Aluminum is more than just a commodity; it is an essential element of modern industry. After recording approximately 22% price growth in 2024, the aluminum market is expected to continue moving influenced by tariffs, geopolitical factors, and industrial demand in 2025.

CFD trading offers an efficient way to capitalize on aluminum market opportunities without the burden of physical storage. However, investing always requires thorough analysis and cautious judgment. Choosing appropriate trade sizes and leverage according to your financial situation and risk tolerance is key to success.