Triangular convergence pattern imminent... major coins face a critical technical juncture

Market Sentiment Is Upward, But Conflicts Between Institutions and Individuals Widen

At the beginning of the week, positive rebound sentiment is circulating in the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin(BTC) remains stable above $87,480, maintaining a steady trend, while Ethereum(ETH) is recovering from $2,940. Ripple(XRP) is moving around $1.86, with each asset approaching a technical turning point.

However, what draws attention are the conflicting signals in the market. In the US-listed spot ETF market, institutional profit-taking is occurring. Last week, $87.77 million flowed out of Bitcoin spot ETFs, and Ethereum spot ETFs also experienced a net outflow of $65.59 million. This is interpreted as profit-taking following short-term surges.

On the other hand, the Ripple spot ETF shows the opposite trend. It has experienced a net inflow of $230.74 million for four consecutive weeks. Meanwhile, the futures market is even more active. Over the past 24 hours, open interest for BTC, ETH, and XRP has increased by over 2% each. This indicates that retail investors’ leverage demand is offsetting institutional spot sales.

Bitcoin, Converging at the Apex of Symmetrical Triangle Pattern… Breaking Through 93.5K Is Key

Technically, Bitcoin is creating an interesting situation. On the daily chart, a symmetrical triangle pattern is narrowing, formed by resistance lines connecting the highs of November 15 and December 3, and support lines connecting the lows. The current price is testing the upper boundary of this pattern around $93,500, and has held above $91,000 for two consecutive days.

A clear signal of technical breakout is present. If the daily candle closes above $93,500, it will be considered an upward breakout. The first target is $97,205, where the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) is located. Technical indicators also show positive signals. The Relative Strength Index(RSI) is at 46, approaching the neutral 50, and the MACD is trending upward toward zero, indicating weakening selling pressure.

However, this symmetrical triangle pattern is a double-edged sword. If the breakout fails, prices could retrace to the lower end of the range at $84,000. The market is likely to either continue upward or undergo a correction at this critical juncture.

Ethereum and Ripple Are Calculating Their Moves Ahead of Key Technical Resistance Levels

Ethereum is attempting to break through the two-month downtrend line since October by recovering above $3,100. The immediate key level is whether it can surpass the recent high of $3,240. If it breaks this level, it could fully exit the downtrend and rise toward $3,459, the 200-day EMA. The RSI at 49 is also returning to the neutral zone, which is a positive sign. Conversely, the previous low of $2,623 acts as a support level on the downside.

Ripple is defending the psychologically and technically important $2 level, seeking a rebound within its downward channel. The current price is at $1.86, with the first task being to break through the channel’s upper boundary at $2.18. If successful, the next target is the medium-term resistance at the 200-day EMA of $2.47. The MACD signal is showing signs of turning bullish, and whether it can hold the support at $1.90, overlapping with the June low, will likely determine the short-term direction.

Ultimately, Breaking Through Technical Resistance Levels Is the Focus This Week

The market is at a clear crossroads. While institutional profit-taking continues, the increase in open interest in futures and the persistent inflow into Ripple spot ETFs indicate that retail investors’ risk appetite for assets remains strong. This week’s market direction will likely depend on Bitcoin’s breakout from the triangle pattern, Ethereum surpassing $3,240, and Ripple’s ability to consolidate around the $2 level.