Key Factors Driving Gold Prices to Skyrocket: In-Depth Analysis for 2025-2026

In recent months, gold prices have surged to unprecedented heights, breaking through the psychological level of $4,000 per ounce. This has led many investors to debate why gold prices are soaring so rapidly and, importantly: how long this cycle will continue?

Overview of Gold Price Changes: Continuous New Records for Months

Looking back to early 2025, gold was at $3,000 per ounce. However, in just seven months, its value skyrocketed to an all-time high of $4,181 (recorded on October 20, 2025). When converted to percentages, this represents a 66% increase over half a year. Financial engineers often point out that the move from 3,000 to 4,000 happened faster than the previous jump from 2,000 to 3,000 (which took 14 months), demonstrating the intense buying momentum.

In the Thai market, the situation is similar. 96.5% pure gold has risen above 62,000 baht per baht-weight, clearly exceeding the original forecasts of experts.

Fundamental Causes: Four Pillars Driving Gold Prices to Skyrocket

1. Full-Scale Trade War

Economic tensions between the US and China have escalated, with recent announcements of a 100% import tariff on Chinese goods (effective November 2025). This impacts global economic confidence. When investors become deeply concerned, they pour money into safe-haven assets, with gold being an unavoidable choice during crises.

2. Easing Monetary Policies

The US Federal Reserve (Federal Reserve) has cut interest rates since September 2025 (by 0.25%), with markets supporting the possibility of further cuts in the following months. Lower interest rates weaken the dollar, making gold in other currencies more attractive. Additionally, low interest rates mean the opportunity cost (opportunity cost) of holding gold decreases significantly.

3. Massive Accumulation by Central Banks

This is a critical singular factor. Central banks from various countries, especially emerging economies, have purchased over 1,000 tons of gold annually for three consecutive years (2023-2025), and continue to buy in 2025. This substantial figure reflects efforts to reduce dependence on the US dollar (de-dollarization), which accelerated after the Russian fund freeze in 2023.

4. BRICS Group Financial Programming

Rumors about the issuance of a (Digital Currency) backed by gold by the BRICS group pose a serious challenge to the dominance of the US dollar. Discussions around this have further increased gold demand.

Expert Opinions for 2025-2026: Still Far from the End

Not conservative views, but leading global financial institutions are raising their targets.

Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast to $4,900 per ounce (by the end of 2026), up from the previous target of $4,300. Analyst Lina Thomas states that the main driver is relentless buying from central banks and ETF gold fund flows. Consequently, Goldman Sachs has also set a forecast of $3,300 for 2024.

UBS Group (Switzerland) estimates that prices could reach $3,500 by the end of 2026, citing “unprecedented central bank gold accumulation” as per Joni Teves, UBS strategist.

For Thailand, using Wall Street’s $4,900 target, gold could be at 75,000-80,000 baht per baht-weight by 2026.

Risks and Barriers: What Could Reverse the Trend

Although the overall outlook is bullish, several dark clouds remain.

If US-China trade negotiations succeed, tensions will ease, and investments might shift to other assets, removing the main catalyst for gold.

Profit-taking sales could surge if prices rise too quickly, as many investors might be tempted to sell and lock in gains.

If the dollar strengthens (due to the US economy outperforming expectations or the Fed pausing rate cuts), gold prices could decline because holders of other currencies will feel gold is more expensive.

High interest rates could also dampen gold’s appeal if inflation remains high and the Fed maintains elevated rates, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold.

Technical Signals: Tools for Decision-Making

Sharp Price Surge Pattern (Price Surge Pattern)

When gold prices surge more than $250 in a short period, it indicates abnormal buying momentum. This signal often precedes further upward movement.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)

The current RSI of gold is in the overbought zone, but in a strong uptrend, this does not justify a sell-off if buying pressure persists.

Market Phase (Market Stage)

According to analyst theories, markets have three stages. Currently, gold is in the “Public Participation” phase (when retail investors buy based on good news, sustaining the momentum).

Candlestick Pattern ###Candlestick Pattern(

The Shooting Star pattern appears, but in a strong uptrend, it may only be a temporary correction.

Practical Strategy: How to Trade in the Current Environment

) Strategy 1: Buy the Dip (Buy the Dip)

When prices fall to around $3,859 ###October start( or $3,782, it’s a suitable buy zone confirmed by RSI turning down or MACD changing direction. Set stop-loss below $3,750. Profit target: over $4,100.

) Strategy 2: Breakout Retest ###Breakout Retest(

When prices break resistance and retest around $3,980-$4,000, and signals confirm a strong upward move, it’s a good entry point for the second buy.

) Strategy 3: Fibonacci Retracement

Draw from the multi-month low of $3,500 to the previous high of $4,059. The 38.2% and 61.8% levels are traditional support zones for buying.

Conclusion: Gold Enters a New Chapter, but Uncertainty Remains

Gold prices in 2025-2026 are built on a solid foundation. The story continues. However, traders and investors should be cautious of rapid swings. Instead of rushing decisions, waiting for key support levels and confirming with technical signals is an effective way to enter long positions. Gold still has upward potential, but don’t forget that volatility can come from all directions.