Is Bitcoin's Recovery Sustainable? BTC Bounces Above $91.5K Amid Mixed Signals

Bitcoin has rebounded notably above the $91,500 mark on Thursday, reclaiming key technical levels after finding support near the psychological $80,000 floor. Yet this bounce—while encouraging—masks underlying fragility in the market structure that traders need to understand.

Institutional Capital Flow: A Double-Edged Sword

The institutional narrative looks modestly positive on the surface. US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $21.12 million in inflows on Wednesday, marking the second consecutive day of capital influx this week. The previous day saw a more substantial $128.64 million enter these vehicles, suggesting institutional players are gradually re-entering the market.

However, context matters. These inflow levels pale in comparison to the relentless outflow siege that battered Bitcoin last week. For BTC to establish a sustainable recovery, inflows need not only to persist but to accelerate materially. The current trajectory suggests cautious institutional positioning rather than aggressive accumulation.

Blockchain Metrics Reveal Market Weakness Beneath the Surface

Here’s where the price action becomes concerning. Despite Bitcoin’s apparent recovery, on-chain data paints a starkly different picture. According to Glassnode’s latest analysis, BTC remains structurally vulnerable, oscillating within a compressed $81,000 to $89,000 band after capitulating through critical cost-basis support levels.

What makes this particularly worrisome? The pattern mirrors Q1 2022’s post-peak environment, when demand dried up and the market weakened incrementally. Liquidity conditions today reflect this same dynamic—the market is drifting sideways with insufficient fresh capital to drive momentum.

The Short-Term Holder Realized Profit/Loss Ratio offers perhaps the clearest lens into current market sentiment. This metric, which gauges the balance between profits and losses among recent investors, has collapsed to 0.07—far below its neutral mean of 4.3. This extreme ratio signals one critical fact: losses now overwhelm profits among shorter-term participants, meaning liquidity has evaporated. Compounding this is the heavy distribution phase by long-term holders during Q2-Q3 2025, which has created selling pressure resistant to typical demand absorption.

The risk? If this depressed ratio persists, Bitcoin could follow Q1 2022’s playbook and break decisively below the True Market Mean threshold at $81,000, triggering further downside.

Technical Indicators Suggest Cautious Optimism—For Now

On the four-hour chart, Bitcoin’s technical setup offers some encouraging signals, even if fragile. The RSI currently sits at 41, trending upward toward the neutral 50 level. This indicates that bearish momentum may be fading, though momentum remains tentative.

More bullish: the MACD indicator registered a bullish crossover on Thursday, which typically signals potential upside continuation. For traders seeking confirmation of the recovery, this signal provides a technical buy setup—at least in the near term.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Two Scenarios in Play

Bullish Case: If BTC maintains its footing and inflows accelerate, the price could extend higher toward the next psychological barrier at $100,000. This would require sustained institutional demand and improved on-chain liquidity conditions.

Bearish Case: Should BTC face rejection, the $85,000 level emerges as the immediate support. A breakdown below that point could cascade toward $81,000—the True Market Mean—where cascading liquidations and capitulation selling might occur.

The Bottom Line: Recovery Remains Conditional

Bitcoin’s bounce above $91,500 is real, but it’s built on shaky foundations. Institutional inflows are present but underwhelming. Technical indicators flash tentative buy signals. Yet on-chain metrics scream caution. Until BTC reclaims cost-basis levels and validates new inflows with sustained price momentum, this recovery remains a low-conviction consolidation rather than the beginning of a new trend.

Traders should watch the $85,000 support closely. A clean break below would signal that the structural weakness Glassnode warned about is accelerating.

Quick Crypto Reference Guide

Bitcoin stands as the largest cryptocurrency by market value, functioning as decentralized digital money operated without central control.

Altcoins encompass all cryptocurrencies besides Bitcoin, though some exclude Ethereum given its foundational role. Litecoin, forked from Bitcoin, represents the first altcoin.

Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies engineered to maintain fixed value by backing assets to commodities or fiat currency, such as USD, regulated via algorithms or market demand.

Bitcoin Dominance measures Bitcoin’s market capitalization relative to total crypto market value, reflecting investor appetite for BTC versus alternative assets. Rising dominance typically precedes bull markets, while declining dominance signals capital rotation into altcoins.