Precious Metals Outlook 2025-2026: Will Gold Rise Toward New Horizons?

The Amazing Performance of Gold in 2025: From 2798 to 4381 USD

The prices of precious metals, especially gold, experienced a strong rally throughout 2025 that many analysts did not anticipate. The year started at $2798 per ounce, with a rapid increase reaching a historic peak of $4381 in mid-October, achieving gains of over 50% in a relatively short period.

This sharp rise reflects current market dynamics and the complex factors driving gold prices. Monthly data indicate a continuous upward pattern: starting the first quarter at $2798, moving through $2894 in February, then a notable jump to $3304 in March, and continued growth in subsequent months.

Factors Driving the Continuous Rise

1. Interest Rate Expectations

A new phase of monetary policy has begun, with central banks gradually lowering interest rates to support economic growth. This trend provides strong support for gold, as declining yields on other assets like bonds make the yellow metal more attractive as a safe haven.

2. Weak US Dollar

The dollar’s value declined significantly during the year, making gold easier to purchase for buyers from other countries, increasing global demand and pushing prices higher.

3. Activity of Global Central Banks

Central banks in emerging markets, especially in Asia, continued large-scale gold purchases. This steady institutional buying provides fundamental support for prices and indicates long-term confidence in the metal’s value.

4. Tense Geopolitical Situations

Regional conflicts and political tensions worldwide prompted investors and individuals to seek safe havens. During times of uncertainty, capital flows toward gold as an asset unaffected by political crises.

Monthly Data Showing the Upward Path

Major Financial Institutions’ Forecasts for 2026

Expert and analyst estimates vary regarding expected prices in the coming year, but generally lean toward optimism:

J.P. Morgan: expects an average of $5000 per ounce by the end of 2026, and $4900 in the last quarter.

Goldman Sachs: indicates a potential reaching of $4000 by mid-2026, with an optimistic scenario up to $4900.

Morgan Stanley: forecasts prices reaching $4500 by mid-year, supported by strong physical demand from funds and central banks.

Standard Chartered: projects $4300 by the end of 2025, with a view to $4500 over the next 12 months.

Bank of America: expects prices to reach $4000 by Q3 2026.

HSBC: ambitious forecasts point to $5000 per ounce by the end of 2026.

ANZ: predicts $4400 by the end of 2025, and $4600 by mid-2026.

Will Gold Rise or Experience a Correction?

Despite positive forecasts, there is a possibility of price corrections. History shows that any sharp increase often faces a period of stabilization or slight decline before continuing upward. Wise investors expect gold to remain near $4000 in the near term before moving toward higher levels.

Factors Controlling Gold Prices

Inflation: A Key Demand Driver

Inflation remains one of the most important drivers. When inflation rises, the purchasing power of currencies declines, prompting people to turn to gold to preserve their wealth. In September 2025, inflation was around 3% annually, still above the central banks’ target of 2%.

US Dollar Strength

The relationship is inverse: when the dollar weakens, gold rises, and vice versa. This reflects the fact that gold is priced in dollars globally, so a weaker dollar makes buying easier for foreign buyers.

Central Bank Policies

Decisions on raising or lowering interest rates, as well as gold purchases, directly impact prices. The current trend toward rate cuts enhances the metal’s appeal.

Geopolitical Risks

During crises and conflicts, capital flows into safe assets. Gold is among the safest assets because it does not depend on the political stability of any specific country.

Investment Fund Demand

Gold-backed ETFs provide an easy way to invest. Any increase in capital inflows into these funds indicates rising demand for physical gold.

( Industrial and Jewelry Demand

Jewelry and technological industries consume a significant portion of gold. Demand from Asian markets, especially India and China, plays a vital role in balancing supply and demand.

Investment Strategies in Gold

) Short-term Investment

Mechanism: Managing daily and weekly price fluctuations through contracts and derivatives.

Advantages:

• Potential for quick profits
• High flexibility in entry and exit
• Opportunities for short-term hedging

Challenges:

• Requires intensive daily monitoring
• Additional trading costs
• Higher risk due to price volatility

Long-term Investment

Mechanism: Buying physical gold or investing in gold-backed funds and holding for years.

Advantages:

• Preserves purchasing power against inflation
• Safe haven during crises
• Stable long-term returns

Challenges:

• May not generate quick profits
• Does not provide regular income like stocks or bonds
• Storage and insurance costs for physical gold

Golden Tips for New Investors

1. Understand Market Basics Before Starting

Reading analytical articles and following monetary policy and inflation news will give you a better understanding of influencing factors.

2. Define Your Goals Clearly

Are you investing for inflation hedging? Retirement? Portfolio diversification? Your answer will determine your strategy.

3. Assess Your Risk Tolerance

Gold is relatively safe but experiences short-term fluctuations. Determine how much decline you can psychologically and financially tolerate.

4. Regularly Monitor Your Portfolio

Avoid over-concentrating your investment in gold. Maintain a healthy balance with other assets.

5. Maintain Investment Discipline

Don’t let daily volatility lead to emotional decisions. A good strategy requires patience and commitment.

Risks That May Hinder Continuous Rise

Possibility of the Fed Raising Rates Again

Any shift in US monetary policy could make yield-bearing assets more attractive than gold.

Decrease in Geopolitical Tensions

If global conditions improve significantly, safe-haven demand may decline.

Changes in Investor Preferences

A mass exit from gold toward other assets could exert strong downward pressure on prices.

Summary

Gold forecasts for 2025 and 2026 generally remain optimistic, with prices expected to move within the range of $4000 to $5000 per ounce. This reflects confidence in sustained demand for the precious metal as a safe haven and store of value.

For investors wishing to add gold to their portfolios, it is essential to clearly define goals first. Between bars and coins offering direct ownership, ETFs providing greater flexibility, and derivatives for short-term speculation, there are multiple options suitable for different investment styles.

Success in gold investing does not rely solely on predictions but on developing a clear investment plan, sticking to it, and regularly monitoring markets. Will gold rise to meet expert forecasts? Only time will tell, but what is certain is that the yellow metal will remain one of the most important tools for wise investing.