Gold in 2025-2026: Strong bullish signals from numbers and global economic factors

The gold market is rewriting history. In 2024, prices surged by over 66% in just 7 months, breaking through the $3,000 per ounce level to reach $4,000, and setting a new record at $4,181 per ounce on October 20. These figures reflect structural changes in the global market, not just short-term price movements.

Global Financial Institutions Continue to See Growth

It’s not only retail investors who see opportunities; leading financial institutions have upgraded their forecasts:

Goldman Sachs has revised its price target from $4,300 to $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2025. Analyst Lina Thomas points out that central banks worldwide purchasing gold and inflows into gold ETFs are the main drivers. For late 2024, they have also increased the target to $3,300.

UBS previously expected a target of $3,500 before December 2024, emphasizing that central banks globally, especially in emerging markets, have added 1,200 tons of gold reserves in a single year—an unprecedented phenomenon.

For gold prices in Thailand, based on the $4,900 target, 96.5% gold bars could reach approximately 75,000-80,000 baht per baht of gold within 2025.

Structural Drivers of Price Movement

Gold price movements are not random; they are driven by four key factors:

Intense Trade Tensions Increasing trade conflicts between superpowers. The president announced a plan to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1, as a response to China’s export controls on rare earth minerals. This uncertainty has led investors to seek safer assets.

Lower Interest Rates The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25% in September 2024. Markets expect further cuts in October and December. Lower rates weaken the dollar, making gold more attractive in other currencies, as gold prices typically move inversely to real interest rates.

High Reserve Accumulation Central banks worldwide, especially in emerging markets, have purchased over 1,000 tons of gold annually for three consecutive years (2022-2024). Global reserves now stand at about 36,699 tons—decades high. This push is driven by efforts to reduce dependence on the US dollar.

Gold-Backed Alternative Currencies News indicates that some countries are considering digital currencies backed by gold, challenging dollar dominance in international decision-making.

Potential Obstacles to Growth

Despite the positive outlook, warning signs exist:

If trade negotiations succeed and tensions ease, gold prices could quickly reverse.

After nearly 8 weeks of rally, profit-taking by investors may occur, and prices are in overbought territory technically.

If the US economy proves stronger than expected and the Fed pauses rate cuts, the dollar could strengthen, putting downward pressure on gold prices.

If inflation does not decline as expected and interest rates remain high, non-yielding gold will lose appeal.

Price Analysis Perspectives

Current technical signals:

Prices have surged over $250 in a few days, indicating buying momentum may still be strong.

RSI is in overbought territory, but a correction could be a temporary pause.

According to market theory, the current phase is likely in the Public Participation zone, where demand expands to general investors.

Entry Points and Risk Management Strategies

Method 1 – Wait for a Pullback In a strong bullish trend, consider buying on dips at key support levels (around $3,859-$3,782). Confirm with RSI decline or MACD crossover, and set stop-loss below support at $3,750.

Method 2 – Test New Resistance Wait for the price to test the psychological resistance at $3,980-$4,000. If it bounces back, buy with a stop-loss below $3,950.

Method 3 – Fibonacci Levels Draw from the previous low (around $3,500) to the high ($4,059). Look for buy signals at 38.2% or 61.8% retracement levels, common support zones during corrections.

Market Outlook and Mid-Term Perspective

Gold prices in 2024-2025 still show strong upward signals. Data from leading financial institutions and macroeconomic factors suggest a high probability of further gains. If you plan to invest, consider waiting for a correction to find better entry points, as prices have risen rapidly and short-term adjustments are possible. Trading gold requires good risk management and confirmation from multiple technical indicators.