Can the doubling of the price of one tael of silver continue? The gold-silver ratio hits a low of the year, sounding an alarm

Since the beginning of 2025, silver prices have performed remarkably, with a cumulative increase of 101%, surpassing the 58% rise of gold during the same period. On December 3rd, silver prices even reached a historic high of $58.95 per ounce, triggering widespread market attention.

However, behind this rally, a hidden concern is emerging—the gold-silver ratio has fallen to 72, the lowest since August 2021. What does this change really mean? How much further can silver prices rise in the future?

Multiple institutions are bullish, but their attitudes are cautious

UBS believes that supported by strong investment demand, silver prices still have further upside potential, with expectations to reach $60 per ounce in 2026. Bank of America is even more optimistic, predicting that due to structural supply shortages, silver prices will rise to $65 per ounce next year.

German Commercial Bank also has a positive outlook on silver, believing that as the Federal Reserve continues to cut interest rates, silver will continue to strengthen. However, it is worth noting that the bank also admits the current concerns—because of the significant increase in silver prices, its relative undervaluation compared to gold has greatly narrowed. It is expected that in the next year, silver prices will hover around $59 per ounce.

The decline in the gold-silver ratio: a turning point for independent rally

While silver prices hit a historic high, the gold-silver ratio has been continuously declining. This reflects a key issue: silver’s value relative to gold is no longer seriously undervalued, and its previous independent rally driven by supply tightness is losing momentum.

Analysis indicates that once silver’s undervaluation disappears, its price trend will more closely follow gold’s fluctuations, making it difficult to replicate the recent strong performance. This means investors relying on gold-silver ratio arbitrage or independent silver trading strategies need to reassess risks.

Structural shortages remain a support, but growth is limited

Structural supply shortages still serve as an important support for silver prices, but the marginal effect of this factor is weakening. As market expectations for supply prospects are gradually digested, it will be difficult for silver prices to sustain momentum through previous rapid gains.

The current market consensus is that silver still has room to rise, but the potential increase will be significantly limited. The target price range of $59 to $65 per ounce, compared to the past 101% rally, indicates a clear downward adjustment of growth expectations.

Investors need to recognize that the investment logic for silver is undergoing a profound shift—from a simple story of supply shortages to a more synchronized precious metals allocation tool alongside gold. This transition will directly impact the future trend of silver prices and investment opportunities.