2025 USD-KRW exchange rate, approaching 1,500 won... Responding to volatility with FX margin trading

Exchange Rate Outlook: Why 2025 Matters

2025 is expected to be a year of extreme volatility in the global financial markets. In particular, the dollar-won exchange rate is approaching historic highs, drawing increased attention from investors. Changes in U.S. policies, the reorganization of international trade order, and unpredictable geopolitical risks have all converged, making exchange rate forecasts more challenging than ever.

Looking at data from the past 20 years, the won-dollar exchange rate has responded sensitively to global economic crises. During the 2008 financial crisis, it exceeded 1,500 won; at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, it plummeted; now, as 2025 progresses, it is approaching those levels again.

Reasons for the Rising Exchange Rate: Protectionist Policies in the Trump Era

By the first half of 2025, the won-dollar exchange rate has already surpassed 1,470 won. Several factors are working in tandem behind this trend.

First, the strengthening of U.S. protectionism. The Trump administration imposed a 10% basic tariff on all imports and continued to add additional tariffs on specific countries like China. In response, China and the EU announced retaliatory tariffs, escalating global trade tensions.

Second, concerns over economic slowdown. Restructuring of U.S. federal agencies and large-scale civil servant layoffs are signaling a potential recession. In this environment, demand for safe assets like the dollar has surged, naturally strengthening the dollar.

Third, difficulties in Korean exports. The won is under increasing downward pressure, which directly impacts South Korea’s export-dependent economy.

Exchange Rate Outlook for the Second Half of 2025: Will the 1,500 Won Era Begin?

Experts are quite cautious in their outlook.

Uncertainty in U.S. monetary policy is the primary variable. The Federal Reserve is caught between inflation and employment weakening. With rising import prices due to tariffs, lowering interest rates has become difficult, potentially delaying rate cuts. If high interest rates persist, the dollar may remain strong in the short term, but if a recession deepens, the dollar could weaken in the medium to long term.

Global economic uncertainty also cannot be ignored. International organizations like the IMF and OECD continue to issue warnings. Instability in the Middle East, fears of European recession, and worsening real estate crises in China are fueling safe-haven demand, which exerts downward pressure on the won.

However, there are positive signals as well. Recovery in Korea’s semiconductor exports and increased exports of electric vehicle parts could surpass economic growth expectations, supporting the won.

Major financial institutions’ outlooks:

• Hana Bank: Exchange rate may rise to 1,490 won, with a possibility of surpassing 1,500 won in the short term
• iM Securities: If domestic political uncertainty persists, a downgrade of the country’s credit rating could push it over 1,500 won
• Shinhan Bank: If domestic political chaos deepens, outlooks should be adjusted upward beyond 1,500 won

In conclusion, the won-dollar exchange rate in 2025 is expected to stay within a high range, likely fluctuating narrowly between 1,450 and 1,500 won. A sharp decline seems less probable.

FX Margin Trading Might Be the Answer in Such Markets

The foreign exchange market(Forex) is the largest financial market in the world, with daily trading volume exceeding 4 trillion dollars. The dollar, as the global reserve currency, is linked to all countries’ economic policies, making accurate exchange rate forecasts extremely important for investments.

What is FX Margin Trading?

FX margin involves trading with only a portion of the total transaction amount as collateral. It uses leverage, meaning if you have 1:100 leverage, you can trade $100,000 worth with just $1,000.

While traditional forex trading requires the full amount upfront, margin trading only needs a fraction as margin. This greatly improves capital efficiency but also increases the risk of losses.

Advantages of FX Margin Trading

1) Aim for large profits with small capital
Using leverage allows you to capitalize on market movements even with limited funds.

2) 24/7 trading
Global markets operate around the clock, enabling immediate responses to economic data releases and global news.

3) Profit opportunities in both bull and bear markets
If you expect the USD to strengthen against KRW, you can take a long position(buy); if you expect it to weaken, you can take a short position(sell).

4) High liquidity in the forex market
The market’s demand and supply are sufficient, resulting in narrow bid-ask spreads(and quick execution.

) Cautions for FX Margin Trading

Leverage is a double-edged sword. While it can amplify gains, it can also magnify losses. In volatile markets, you could lose a significant portion of your capital overnight. Therefore, thorough risk management is essential.

Choosing a Reliable FX Trading Platform

Summarizing the features of major FX trading platforms in 2025:

IG

• Regulation: FCA, ASIC, among others
• Pros: Professional analysis tools, diverse asset classes
• Cons: Might be complex for beginners
• Recommended for: Intermediate to advanced traders

OANDA

• Regulation: CFTC, FCA, etc.
• Pros: Low fees, high reliability, precise order system
• Popular among: Long-term investors, algorithmic traders
• Recommended for: Long-term oriented traders

Saxo Bank

• Regulation: EU regulations, very high trustworthiness
• Pros: Advanced features, broad asset access
• Cons: High minimum deposit
• Recommended for: Professional investors

CMC Markets

• Regulation: FCA, etc.
• Pros: Low spreads, advanced charting tools, abundant educational resources
• Popular among: Active short-term traders
• Recommended for: Day traders

Mitrade

• Regulation: ASIC, etc.
• Pros: User-friendly interface, low entry barrier, mobile-optimized
• Popular among: Beginners, mobile traders
• Recommended for: Novices, short-term investors

Four key points when choosing a platform:

• Is the regulation sufficient? ###Certified by financial authorities(
• Are fees and spreads competitive?
• Is the platform stable? )Minimal downtime(
• Is customer support prompt and friendly?

Developing a Practical Trading Strategy

Combining fundamental and technical analysis

Fundamental analysis involves examining macroeconomic indicators like interest rates, employment data, consumer price index (CPI), and GDP to determine currency direction. During uncertain policy periods like 2025, pay close attention to U.S. rate decisions and government policy announcements.

Technical analysis uses charts and indicators)RSI, MACD, moving averages( to identify buy and sell timing. Enter trades during strong trends and exit when trend reversal signals appear.

The importance of risk management

• Invest only a certain percentage)e.g., 2-5%( of your total capital per trade
• Always set a stop-loss)Stop Loss( to prevent unexpected losses
• Avoid excessive leverage and maintain stable capital management principles
• Keep a trading journal to analyze performance and mistakes
• Avoid emotional decisions; trade based on a calm, planned approach

Conclusion: How to View the 2025 Exchange Rate Market?

There is a significant possibility that the won-dollar exchange rate will reach 1,500 won. The combination of Trump’s protectionist policies, global retaliatory tariffs, and recession fears will likely amplify exchange rate volatility.

But this isn’t necessarily all bad news. Volatility creates trading opportunities. FX margin trading allows turning these exchange rate fluctuations into profit opportunities.

However, in markets as uncertain as 2025, prioritizing thorough analysis and conservative asset allocation over short-term gains is crucial. Choose a trustworthy trading platform, base your strategies on fundamental and technical analysis, and develop strong risk management and emotional discipline skills.

2025 could be a turbulent year for the exchange rate market, but for prepared investors, it can also be a year of ample opportunity. Start preparing step by step now.

Three steps to start trading:

Step 1: Register on a platform
Sign up on a reliable FX trading platform and submit the required information.

Step 2: Deposit funds
Quickly fund your trading account through various deposit methods.

Step 3: Start trading
Analyze exchange rate movements, identify profit opportunities, and execute orders.