Unemployment rate hits four-year high, overshadowing the market; US 10-year Treasury yield plunges, Tech Stocks diverge with slight gains

The signals of a softening US labor market continue to ferment. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced on Tuesday that the November employment data showed non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000, well below market expectations. More importantly, the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021. This data reflects a clear decline in corporate hiring willingness, with many companies preferring to improve efficiency through automation and artificial intelligence rather than large-scale hiring.

Under the shadow of pessimistic expectations, market concerns about a recession have significantly intensified. The US 10-year Treasury yield dropped by 4 basis points to 4.14%, falling alongside oil prices and the dollar, forming a “triple decline” scenario. This rare synchronized decline fully indicates that investors are adjusting risk asset allocations, shifting toward defensive assets.

Stock Market Divergence, Tesla Leading the Way

The performance of the three major US stock indices is inconsistent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.62%, the S&P 500 declined slightly by 0.24%, marking three consecutive days of decline, while the Nasdaq rebounded by 0.23%. European stocks were broadly under pressure, with the UK FTSE 100 down 0.68%, Germany’s DAX down 0.63%, and France’s CAC down 0.23%.

Among popular stocks, Tesla performed remarkably, rising over 3% to set a new all-time closing high, with the company’s market value entering the top seven in the US. Morgan Stanley’s latest forecast indicates that, as Robotaxi tests without safety drivers in Texas are successfully verified, Tesla’s autonomous vehicle fleet is expected to expand significantly to around 1,000 units by 2026. Other tech stocks showed mixed performance: Nvidia rose slightly by 0.81%, Apple edged up by 0.18%, Microsoft increased by 0.33%, Meta performed strongly with a 1.49% gain, while Google and Amazon showed slight declines.

Commodities Under Pressure, Energy Prices Decline

The energy market remains weak. WTI crude oil plummeted by 2.66% to $55.17 per barrel, hitting recent lows. Gold prices slightly declined by 0.06% to $4,302 per ounce. The US dollar index fell by 0.04% to 98.21, USD/JPY declined by 0.31%, and EUR/USD edged down by 0.05%.

Cryptocurrency Market Slight Fluctuations

The cryptocurrency market continues to fluctuate. Bitcoin decreased by 0.26% over the past 24 hours, currently trading at $87.56K, operating relatively stably. Ethereum rose slightly by 0.18% to $2.95K. In Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng Index night session futures closed at 25,219 points, 16 points lower than the previous close.

Multiple Pressures on the Macroeconomy

The outlook for the federal funds rate remains bleak. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that the probability of a rate cut in January next year remains low at 24%, unchanged from the previous day, indicating market expectations for further easing are waning.

Trump will deliver a nationwide speech at 9 PM Eastern Time on Wednesday. Against the backdrop of declining public support and economic headwinds, this speech is expected to elaborate on his achievements over the past year and to build momentum for the midterm elections next year. The speech may cover policy directions in trade, defense spending, immigration, and other areas.

The decline in the US 10-year Treasury yield also reflects concerns about economic growth. US October retail sales were flat month-over-month, falling short of expectations; the December Services PMI preliminary reading was 52.9, significantly below the expected 54, indicating a slowdown in the service sector. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) forecasts that, due to tariff uncertainties, global economic growth will slow to 2.9% next year.

Geopolitical and Regulatory Risks Persist

Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov reiterated that Moscow has no room for concessions on territorial issues, and a long-term exploration of solutions to the Ukraine crisis is still needed. Meanwhile, the US has threatened retaliatory measures against the EU in response to its digital tax on US tech companies. These geopolitical and regulatory risks will continue to influence global market sentiment.

Tech Sector Developments

OpenAI announced the hiring of former UK Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne to lead its global Stargate expansion plan. The project aims to promote AI infrastructure development outside the US, with OpenAI engaging in sovereignty AI development talks with 50 countries.