EUR-PLN Forecast 2025-2026: How will the Euro-Zloty exchange rate develop?

What Traders Should Know About the EUR-PLN Currency Pair

The EUR-PLN currency pair is of interest to many German and European traders, as Poland is one of the largest neighboring countries of the European Union. With over 800,000 Polish citizens in German-speaking regions, there are numerous emotional connections to the land and currency. The Polish Złoty (PLN) has not yet been replaced by the euro – Poland has been an EU member since 2004 but has not adopted the common currency – but this offers trading opportunities.

Currently (October 2025), EUR-PLN is trading at around 4.27 Złoty per euro. Historically, this exchange rate has moved around the 4.00 PLN per EUR mark since 1998, except during the crises of 2001 and 2008. At first glance, this seems unremarkable, but the technical chart development tells a different story.

The Current Market Situation of the EUR-PLN Exchange Rate

After the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, the euro appreciated significantly against the Złoty. However, for about three years, a downward trend has been observed: the Złoty is strengthening. From March 2025, there was a slight counter-movement where the euro regained ground. This recovery suggests a possible trend reversal, especially since the rate has bounced off significant lows multiple times since the beginning of the year.

The question for traders is: Will this upward trend of the euro against the Złoty continue, or does the strength of the Polish currency still dominate?

Six Factors That Drive the EUR-PLN Rate

Inflation and Price Stability

Inflation rates are a key factor in currency valuation:

Poland: 3.7% (2024), forecasted 3.6% (2025) and 2.8% (2026)
Eurozone: 2.4% (2024), expected 2.1% (2025) and 1.7% (2026)

The Eurozone benefits from significantly lower inflation rates. This favors euro appreciation, as investors prefer stability-oriented currencies. However, a decline is also expected in Poland, reducing pressure.

Key interest rates as yield drivers

A clear gap is evident here:

Poland: 4.75% key interest rate with possible further cuts from 2026
Eurozone: 2.0% key interest rate with uncertain future development

Higher interest rates attract international investors and support the domestic currency. Poland’s interest rate advantage thus favors a stronger Złoty. If the ECB continues to lower rates, this advantage could further increase.

Debt Situation

Another differentiator lies in national debt. Poland’s public debt reached over €416 billion by Q2 2025, increasing by 3.3% compared to the previous quarter. The upward trend is clear. Higher debt ratios make countries less attractive to international investors and can lead to currency depreciation.

Political Framework Conditions

The Polish government under Prime Minister Donald Tusk, which took office in December 2023, enjoys broad support among the population. The challenges are significant – modernization of institutions, energy transition, productivity increase – but political stability is present.

In Europe, euroskeptic and right-wing tendencies were observed in the 2024 EU elections, but the planned scope was not reached. A pro-European majority remains intact, giving the euro currency a boost.

Economic Growth and Labor Market

The differences are substantial:

Poland: GDP growth of 3.5% (2025) and 3.5% (2026) with an unemployment rate of 3.1%
Eurozone: Growth of 1.2% (2025) and 1.0% (2026) with an unemployment rate of 6.2%

Poland’s more robust economic data favor the Złoty. Weak European consumption, dampened foreign demand, and political uncertainty slow down the eurozone. Trump’s punitive tariffs could further widen this divergence.

Geopolitical Risks

The war in Ukraine has an asymmetric impact. All European countries increased their military spending significantly. For Poland – a direct neighbor of Ukraine and Belarus – the burden is heavier. Millions of Ukrainian refugees strain Polish households, with an employment participation rate of 70% among this group.

The longer the conflict persists, the greater this burden becomes for the Polish economy. This could put pressure on the Złoty.

EUR-PLN Forecast for 2025 and 2026

Scenarios and Expert Opinions

Analysts are divided on the further development:

• Bearish view: Some expect a fall below 4.20 EUR/PLN
• Bullish view: Others forecast values up to 4.44 EUR/PLN by the end of 2026
• Mid-range: Erste Group expects 4.30 EUR/PLN in 2026

Weighing the Scenarios

Arguments for euro weakness (Złoty strength):

• Higher Polish interest rates (4.75% vs. 2.0%)
• Stronger GDP growth (3.5% vs. 1.2%)
• Lower unemployment rate (3.1% vs. 6.2%)

Arguments for euro strength:

• Significantly lower inflation in the eurozone (1.7% vs. 2.8% in 2026)
• Moderate debt accumulation pace
• Greater geopolitical distance from war zones

Arguments for sideways movement:

• Both currencies are economically favored
• Similar external shocks affect both
• Positive and negative factors partly balance each other

Volatility and Trading Opportunities

The EUR-PLN exchange rate showed significant intra-year fluctuations in 2025. Daily ranges are moderate, enabling relaxed trading. However, uncertainty about the direction of the rate also increases risk.

Active traders can take advantage of a expected sideways movement with upward pressure by entering long positions at lows. The interest rate differential of nearly 3 percentage points also makes this pair interesting for carry trade strategies.

Conclusion: EUR-PLN Currently and in the Future

The analysis shows a mixed picture for the euro-Złoty rate. The Polish Złoty has appreciated significantly against the euro in recent months. Higher interest rates, expected economic growth, and low unemployment support this strength.

However, higher Polish inflation, rising public debt, and geopolitical risks warn against overly optimistic forecasts. Since analysts do not define a clear direction, traders should proceed cautiously.

A sideways movement with a slight upward bias seems the most likely scenario for 2025-2026. With the current EUR-PLN rate around 4.27 PLN per euro, traders can exploit short-term movements or focus on medium-term interest gains.

Despite lower daily volatility, the EUR-PLN pair offers interesting opportunities for European traders – and makes for an engaging conversation with Polish friends and neighbors.

Frequently Asked Questions about EUR-PLN

What factors mainly influence the EUR-PLN exchange rate?

Inflation, interest rates, public debt, political stability, GDP growth, and geopolitical developments like the Ukraine war are the main influencing factors. They determine the economic attractiveness of both currencies.

How can I invest in the EUR-PLN exchange rate?

Traders can use CFDs (Contracts for Difference) to bet on both rising and falling rates. Traditionally, one can also buy or sell foreign currencies. However, CFDs carry high risk of loss and require risk management.

What is Poland’s economic outlook for 2025-2026?

Poland’s economy remains stable with expected growth of 3.5% in both years. Unemployment is below the EU average. Inflation is gradually decreasing. However, public debt is rising, and rate cuts are anticipated – both could pressure the Złoty.