Gold Price Analysis: Bullish Trends Amid Expectations of Interest Rate Cuts | November 13, 2025

Current Technical Levels for Gold

Gold is currently trading near $4,209 per ounce, recording a significant rise over the past few weeks. According to technical data, the $4,046 level acts as an important support, having shifted from a previous resistance, while $4,380 remains a major resistance ceiling that could determine the next movement direction.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads around 73 points, indicating overbought conditions that may lead to limited short-term profit-taking. However, the upward trend is expected to continue as long as the price stays above the support zone of $4,040 - $4,060.

Broader Economic Context

In recent weeks, global financial markets have experienced turbulence due to the US government shutdown that lasted six weeks, halting the release of critical economic data, especially inflation and employment reports.

This information gap created uncertainty among traders, but Trump signed the necessary legislation to reopen the government last Wednesday. However, resuming government operations does not mean an immediate return to pre-shutdown economic activity levels, as the halt has impacted consumer confidence and delayed infrastructure projects.

Bets on Monetary Easing

Market expectations largely anticipate the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the December meeting. This expectation is based on a slowdown in the labor market and a decline in consumer spending, pushing towards more accommodative monetary policies.

Any rate cut typically puts downward pressure on the dollar and boosts non-yielding assets like gold, explaining the increasing demand for the yellow metal as a safe haven during times of uncertainty.

Central Banks as a Key Support

Global central banks, especially China, India, and Turkey, are behind a significant portion of current gold demand. These institutions seek to diversify their reserves and reduce reliance on the US dollar amid rising geopolitical concerns.

This systematic buying by central banks provides a strong and stable support base for the market, away from short-term speculative volatility, giving the bullish trend long-term momentum.

Annual Performance and Future Outlook

Gold has gained nearly 60% since the start of this year and is on track to record its best annual performance since 1979. This rise results from multiple factors: slowing global growth, declining confidence in fiat currencies, increasing geopolitical tensions, and a shift toward easing monetary policies.

Analysts talk about potential gold targets reaching $5,000 per ounce by 2026, provided the dollar remains weak and central banks continue their purchases.

Dollar and Gold Balance

Although the dollar saw some gains after the government shutdown ended, this rebound remains limited and temporary. Investors recognize that government reopening will not offset the damage caused by six weeks of shutdown, especially with ongoing uncertainty about monetary policy paths.

Overall momentum remains in favor of gold, which is chosen as a defensive asset against potential US dollar weakness and economic slowdown.

Movement of Other Precious Metals

Other precious metals moved in tandem with gold. Silver rose about 1.4% to reach $54.15 per ounce, approaching historic highs supported by industrial and investment demand.

Platinum stabilized near $1,620 per ounce with modest gains, while palladium increased about 0.8% to $1,486, supported by expectations of demand recovery from the automotive sector.

Summary and Upcoming Expectations

The gold market is experiencing a delicate balance between conflicting factors: optimism about ending the government shutdown on one hand, and concerns over its economic repercussions on the other. This balance positions the yellow metal strongly to benefit from any negative developments in upcoming economic data.

Traders are inclined to hold onto gold as a safe haven, expecting continued support from accommodative monetary policies and ongoing central bank purchases, which suggests the upward trend will persist in the medium term.