Technical Analysis Introduction: Mid-December Multi-Asset Strategy Overview — US Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Tech Stocks Panorama Scan

Market Background: Weak Employment Data Dashes Central Bank Rate Cut Expectations

The signals of continued weakness in the US labor market are quite clear. Non-farm payrolls added only 105,000 jobs in October, with a rebound to 64,000 in November, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly surged to 4.6%, reaching a four-year high. This data should have supported accommodative monetary policy, but the Fed’s rate cut expectations do not seem as solid as the market anticipated. The threshold for further rate cuts has risen, allowing the dollar to find support around 98.0, then rebound to 98.60. The overall market may enter a range-bound consolidation phase.

US Dollar Index: Key Support Remains Firm, Short-term Consolidation Likely

During the trading session on December 16, the US Dollar Index briefly dipped to a low of 97.8 intraday, then showed a repeated upward trend, eventually recovering to 98.2 and further rising toward 98.5. From a technical perspective, the most notable point is that the dollar index successfully rebounded at the Gann 2/1 line, indicating that bullish and bearish forces are still fiercely contesting in this area. In the short term, a consolidation pattern is likely to persist.

Market Outlook: If the dollar index cannot hold above 98.0 support, the next target level will be 95.2. To reverse the downward trend, the dollar needs to break through the key resistance at 99.3.

Gold: Upward Resistance Remains Strong, Overall Trend Unchanged

On December 17, gold rose by 0.36%, reaching $4,342. Recently, gold has faced multiple setbacks above $4,350, reflecting strong selling pressure in this zone. Nonetheless, the upward trend itself has not been broken, and consolidation may occur between $4,220 and $4,300.

Technically, if gold breaks through the key resistance at $4,381, it could further open the upward channel toward $4,438 and even $4,570. Conversely, if it falls below $4,200, it will be necessary to confirm whether the bullish momentum is truly lost.

WTI Crude Oil: Urgent Correction Needed, Short-term Rebound Limited

On December 17, WTI crude oil rose by 1.16%, reaching $56.09. Previously, oil had experienced four consecutive days of decline, hitting a four-year low, indicating a high market demand for correction.

In the short term, $57.0 is a significant resistance for the rebound. If the rebound stalls here, the market may test support at $55.0 and even $52.0. To reverse the medium-term downtrend, crude oil must effectively break through $59.0.

Nasdaq 100 Index: Downside Risks Remain, Rebound Momentum to Watch

The Nasdaq 100 index is currently stabilizing around 25,200 points, consolidating in this zone. Technical indicators show that the AO indicator is signaling increasing downside momentum, warning traders to remain cautious about the sustainability of any rebound.

If the index faces resistance at 25,500 points during a rebound, the downside could test 25,000 points, and possibly even drop to support at 24,000. The performance in this area will directly influence the medium-term trend of tech stocks.

Overall Strategy Advice

From a technical analysis perspective, the current market shows a synchronized adjustment across multiple assets. The dollar and oil are seeking support in the short term, while gold and Nasdaq need to confirm the sustainability of their upward moves. It is recommended that traders adopt a defensive stance at this stage, waiting for clear breakout signals at key support or resistance levels before making decisions.