GBP to USD fluctuates and waits; US CPI index becomes the key variable next week

The GBP/USD exchange rate has recently been trapped in a narrow range, with market participants awaiting the release of two major economic data points. Among them, the US CPI index, together with UK inflation data, will become the decisive factors influencing the subsequent exchange rate trend.

US CPI Index Postponed, Market Has Been Waiting

Due to the US government shutdown, the originally scheduled September US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data has been delayed until this Thursday. Although the data release is somewhat delayed, this report still holds significant reference value for the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions, especially on the eve of the December 10 interest rate decision. Market attention to the US CPI index and related employment data continues to intensify, with investors generally believing these indicators will provide key clues for the next monetary policy direction.

UK Inflation Data Coming Soon, Slight Decline Expected

The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be announced at 7:00 AM London time on Wednesday. According to market consensus, the core inflation rate for October is expected to slightly decrease from 3.5% to 3.4%, while the overall inflation rate may also drop from 3.8% to 3.6%. However, it is worth noting that the monthly month-on-month data is expected to rise from 0.0% to 0.4%, indicating that inflationary pressures have not completely dissipated.

Technical Outlook Shows Balance, Breakout Direction Pending

GBP/USD continues to trade below the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, with the overall trend remaining cautious. From the daily chart, after a sharp decline in October, the exchange rate has entered a recovery phase, currently maintaining support around 1.3010, with recent trading concentrated near 1.3150.

Technical indicators show mixed signals: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rebounded from oversold territory but has not yet reached the central zone, indicating limited rebound strength; the stochastic oscillator has just formed an upward crossover but remains in the middle of the range, consistent with the current sideways pattern.

Two Key Price Levels Traders Should Watch

In the short term, whether GBP/USD can effectively break through the resistance zone around 1.3200 or fall below the support zone at 1.3010 will determine the next movement direction. The release of the US CPI index and the realization of UK inflation data are expected to be the main catalysts for triggering the directional choice. Traders should closely monitor these economic data releases while also paying attention to specific technical performance to develop appropriate trading strategies.