Trump opens up Nvidia's H200 export to China, the market awaits the Federal Reserve's decision, gold falls below the 4200 level

Market Focus Scan

On Monday, global financial markets experienced volatility, with the major US stock indices all declining. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.45%, the S&P 500 declined 0.35%, and the Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.14%. Correspondingly, the VIX fear index and the MOVE bond volatility index both rose, with VIX up 8.25% and MOVE increasing 7.46%, reflecting a shift towards cautious market sentiment.

Oil and precious metals also came under pressure, with WTI crude oil dropping 2.14% to $58.83 per barrel. Gold broke below the $4,200 per ounce level, currently at $4,190, down 0.17%. In the cryptocurrency sector, Bitcoin showed a modest gain, rising 0.27% in 24 hours to $90,699; Ethereum performed relatively strongly, up 2.09% in 24 hours to $3,129.

Trump Approves NVIDIA Export of AI Chips to China, Global Tech Landscape to Change

President Trump announced approval for NVIDIA to export its flagship H200 AI chips to China, with a 25% profit share from the transaction. This decision marks significant progress in lobbying efforts by the world’s most valuable tech company, potentially restoring billions of dollars in overseas business. Stimulated by the news, NVIDIA’s stock surged 3.1% in after-hours trading, ultimately closing up 1.7%. Microsoft also benefited, with shares rising 1.6%.

Trump stated on social media that the US will allow NVIDIA to deliver H200 chips to China and other authorized customers under certain conditions. Commerce Secretary Raimondo reportedly expressed support for this strategy, while the Department of Commerce declined to comment. Industry insiders note that this shift indicates the strict chip export restrictions implemented during the previous Biden administration have become ineffective.

FOMC Meeting Approaching, Dovish Expectations Easing

The Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting will convene on Tuesday, with results expected to be announced early Thursday. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25 bps rate cut after the meeting is approximately 89% to 92%.

However, White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hasset recently stated in an interview with CNBC that it would not be wise for the Fed to pre-announce its future rate path for the next six months, emphasizing that decisions should be based on economic data. Hasset, considered a potential successor to Powell,’s cautious stance dampened market expectations of dovish policy. Deutsche Bank’s global macro research head Jim Reid forecasted that Powell will likely reiterate that the threshold for further rate cuts early next year remains high, implying a possible pause in easing in the short term.

As a result, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.196%, up 5.6 basis points intraday; the 2-year yield increased 4.4 basis points to 3.608%. Market expectations for the number of rate cuts in 2026 have been revised downward from three to two over the past month.

Consumer Confidence Declines, Inflation Expectations Steady

The latest consumer expectations survey from the New York Federal Reserve shows that in November, US consumers’ inflation expectations for the next year remained steady at 3.2%. However, respondents’ outlook for the unemployment rate over the next 12 months improved slightly, falling to 13.8%, the lowest since December 2024.

Worryingly, consumers’ perception of their household financial situation has significantly worsened, with the proportion expressing pessimism rising markedly compared to a year ago. Regarding future inflation, consumers expect gasoline prices to rise by 4.09%, food prices by 5.87%, medical costs by 10.08%, college tuition by 8.39%, and rent by 8.27%. The proportion of consumers expecting to be unable to pay their credit card minimum payments increased to 13.7%, up from 13.1% in October.

Trump Tariff Policies Trigger Dollar Fluctuations, Global Forex Trading Hits New Highs

The Bank for International Settlements quarterly report indicates that Trump’s tariff policies have sent market signals of turbulence, leading to an unexpected depreciation of the dollar. Global foreign exchange daily trading volume in April rose to $9.5 trillion, a 27% increase compared to 2022, partly driven by hedging transactions related to US tariff issues.

The report notes that tariffs have a tangible impact, with the dollar falling more than expected and over $1.5 trillion in off-exchange trading volume. Overall forex trading volume increased by over 25% from the last survey in 2022, surpassing the scale seen during the COVID-19 pandemic peak in March 2020. The US dollar index rose 0.11% to 99.09 on Monday, with USD/JPY up 0.38%, while EUR/USD declined 0.06%.

Global Economic Warnings: Debt, Political Conflicts, and Geopolitical Risks

Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio issued a warning that the global economy faces a confluence of three major cycles—rising debt burdens, increasing US political polarization, and escalating geopolitical tensions. He believes that over the next one to two years, the global economy will become more fragile, with market bubbles comparable to the dot-com bubble of 2000.

Dalio pointed out that global debt has begun to exert pressure on markets, with cracks appearing in private equity, venture capital, and refinancing debt sectors. As the US approaches the 2026 elections, political turmoil may intensify, compounded by high interest rates and excessive concentration of market leadership, further deepening vulnerabilities. He reiterated concerns about a bubble in AI enthusiasm but advised investors not to rush out due to high valuations.

JPMorgan: Post-Rate Cut US Stock Rally May Stall

JPMorgan strategist Mislav Matejka’s team warned that after the Fed completes rate cuts, the recent rally in US stocks could stall as investors lock in gains. Since the rate cut expectations are already priced in, stocks have returned to high levels, and investors are more inclined to realize profits before year-end rather than increase directional positions.

However, JPMorgan remains optimistic about the medium-term outlook, believing that the Fed’s dovish stance will support the stock market. Weak oil prices, slowing wage growth, and easing US tariffs will allow the central bank to loosen policy without fueling inflation. Reduced trade uncertainty, improving Chinese economic prospects, increased fiscal spending in the Eurozone, and accelerated AI adoption in the US are expected to boost stock performance next year.

Corporate Developments: Tech Giants Compete in AI and Hardware

OpenAI: Surge in ChatGPT Enterprise Users, Significant Efficiency Gains

OpenAI reports that active weekly users of ChatGPT have surpassed 800 million. Rapid adoption in the consumer sector is accelerating AI integration into enterprise workflows. Over the past six months, international markets have seen AI adoption rates soar, with paid business customers in Australia, Brazil, the Netherlands, and France increasing by over 1.4 times annually.

Employee feedback indicates that AI helps save 40 to 60 minutes of work daily, with data science, engineering, and communication fields experiencing even greater time savings—up to 60 to 80 minutes per day. About 75% of respondents believe AI has improved work output speed or quality, and an equal proportion have used AI to complete previously unmanageable technical tasks.

Over the past year, ChatGPT enterprise weekly message volume has increased about 8-fold, with the average messages per employee rising 30%. Use of advanced reasoning capabilities has surged approximately 320 times in 12 months, with fastest growth in tech, healthcare, and manufacturing sectors. OpenAI COO Brad Lightcap revealed the company now has over 1 million paying enterprise customers, with 7 million paid seats for ChatGPT workplace products.

Google and Apple Race in AI Glasses and Chip Innovation

Google announced it is developing two types of AI glasses to compete with Meta’s existing products, including a version with a display and an audio-focused version. The first Google AI glasses are expected to launch in 2026, with hardware partners including Samsung Electronics, Warby Parker, and Gentle Monster. Samsung’s Galaxy XR headset will soon receive multiple software upgrades, including a travel mode enabling mixed reality devices to be used in cars and on planes.

Apple’s chip chief Johnny Srouji has confirmed he will remain with the team, denying rumors of departure. Bloomberg reported last month that Srouji had considered leaving, but an internal memo on Monday emphasized pride in team achievements and love for Apple, with no intention of leaving soon. Since joining Apple in 2008, Srouji has led the development of Mac M-series chips and iPhone A-series core chips.

IBM Acquires Confluent for $9.3 Billion

IBM announced it will acquire data streaming platform Confluent for $9.3 billion, with IBM’s stock rising 0.4%. Tesla’s stock was weak, down 3.4%, while Alphabet declined 2.3%.

Market Snapshot

US stocks: Dow -0.45%, S&P -0.35%, Nasdaq -0.14%, China Golden Dragon Index +0.08%. European stocks: UK FTSE 100 +0.23%, France CAC40 +0.08%, Germany DAX +0.07%.

Bond markets: US 10-year Treasury yield around 4.17%, up 3 basis points from the previous trading day. Forex: US dollar index up 0.11% to 99.09. Hong Kong stocks: Hang Seng night futures close at 25,763 points, down 2 points from previous close.

Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin at $90,699, up 0.27% in 24 hours; Ethereum at $3,129, up 2.09% in 24 hours.

Today’s Key Events Preview

Australia’s RBA to announce rate decision and Governor Lowe’s press conference; US November NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, October JOLTS job openings; EIA releases Monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook; US 10-year Treasury auction results. Investors should continue monitoring the AUD/HKD 30-day exchange rate, which will reflect regional currency market expectations of central bank policies.