When will the US CPI data for 2024 be released? Annual trend analysis and investment insights

CPI Release Schedule: Grasp Key Monthly Moments

To accurately understand market trends, you first need to know when the US CPI is released. As a leading indicator of inflation, the US Consumer Price Index’s release time is often a crucial reference ahead of Federal Reserve decisions—specifically the PCE data. This means each CPI announcement can trigger significant volatility in major asset classes.

The pattern of US CPI releases is simple: it is published on the first business day of each month or the closest business day. However, due to daylight saving time adjustments, the exact timing may vary.

The 2024 CPI release schedule (Taiwan time) is as follows:

• January 11, 21:30
• February 13, 21:30
• March 12, 21:30
• April 10, 20:30
• May 15, 20:30
• June 12, 20:30
• July 11, 20:30
• August 14, 20:30
• September 11, 20:30
• October 10, 20:30
• November 13, 21:30
• December 11, 21:30

The Triple Play of Inflation Data: What Are CPI, Core CPI, and PCE Used For?

There are many inflation indicators in the market, but investors should focus on only two series: CPI and PCE. Each series is further divided into monthly change rates, annual change rates, and core versus non-core versions. Simply put, these are different ways of telling the same story.

CPI vs Core CPI: the difference lies in whether food and energy are excluded. Regular CPI includes all items and is more susceptible to fluctuations in oil and food prices, leading to higher volatility. Core CPI filters out these “noises,” providing a clearer picture of the true price trends of other goods and services.

CPI vs PCE: differences in calculation methodology determine their practical application. CPI uses a fixed-weight approach, which can overstate inflation pressures. PCE employs a chain-weighted method; when oil prices surge, consumers tend to switch to other energy sources, and the weights adjust accordingly. This “substitution effect” allows PCE to more accurately capture actual price changes, smoothing out peaks and troughs.

Monthly change rate vs annual change rate: stability is the key criterion. The annual rate compares directly with the same period last year, eliminating seasonal distortions and reflecting the real trend in prices. Monthly changes can be too volatile and may generate false signals.

Two Key Indicators Investors Must Watch

The market and the Federal Reserve each focus on different points:

US CPI Year-over-Year — released earliest and reacts most sensitively. It is the “precursor” among inflation data series, often triggering sharp asset price swings that traders must monitor constantly.

US PCE Year-over-Year — released slightly later but carries more weight. It is the scientific basis for the Fed’s monetary policy decisions and has a greater influence on final policy.

Interestingly, these two indicators usually move in the same direction with similar magnitudes. For the market, reacting early to CPI data allows for proactive positioning; for the Fed, PCE is the ultimate reference.

The Internal Structure of CPI: Which Items Drive Inflation?

US CPI is composed of multiple sub-items with the following approximate shares:

• Housing (mainly rent): 30–40%
• Food and beverages: 13–15%
• Education and communication: 6–7%
• Medical care: 7–9%
• Energy: 6–8%
• Transportation services: 5–6%
• New vehicles: 3–5%
• Recreation: 3–5%
• Used cars: 2–3%
• Apparel: 2–3%

Housing and food are the heavyweights, accounting for over 40%. This means fluctuations in rent and food prices directly determine the overall inflation trend. Other items are also important but have a much smaller impact in comparison.

The Two Major Drivers of Inflation in 2024

First Driver: Political Risks in the US Election Year

2024 is a US presidential election year. Regardless of the party elected, candidates tend to overpromise, especially on economic issues. Coupled with the current complex international environment, political leaders might shift domestic tensions outward, escalating geopolitical conflicts. Additionally, the wave of de-globalization accelerates again, resulting in persistent upward pressure on prices. This constitutes a structural drag on inflation in 2024.

Second Driver: Uncertainty in the Fed’s Rate Cut Pace

According to CME data, the market expects the highest probability of a 6-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in 2024. This reflects a general consensus that US CPI will trend downward throughout the year. However, whether the rate cut process proceeds smoothly depends on whether inflation data remains as moderate as expected.

Inflation Cycles in 30 Years: A Historical Perspective

Since the 1990s, US CPI has experienced four distinct waves of fluctuation, each linked to major economic events:

First (July 1990 – March 1991): Savings and loan crisis plus Gulf War oil shocks triggered a recession.

Second (September 2000 – October 2001): Dot-com bubble burst and 9/11 attacks severely impacted the economy.

Third (January 2008 – June 2009): Subprime mortgage crisis erupted, spreading a global financial crisis.

Fourth (March 2020 – June 2022): COVID-19 caused a rapid drop in CPI, followed by massive Fed stimulus pushing inflation to near decade-high levels.

A key insight: global logistics conditions have a much larger impact on US inflation than previously thought. The Red Sea crisis at the end of 2023 reaffirmed this. Houthi attacks forced shipping companies to reroute around the Red Sea, doubling Eurasian freight rates within weeks. Although the impact was less than the “Ever Given” incident in 2021, regional logistics disruptions and rising costs will ultimately reflect in consumer prices—an important risk to monitor.

CPI Outlook for 2024: Bottoming Out, Rebound in Q2

The latest IMF forecast shows US GDP growth at 2.1% in 2024, ranking second among major global economies, well above the Eurozone’s 0.9%. More importantly, the relative strength of the US economy suggests inflation levels are unlikely to decline sharply.

Considering the current commodity market:

Crude oil inventories continue to decline, supporting oil prices, which means energy inflation is unlikely to continue falling.

Major commodities in the first half of 2023 mostly declined in a volatile manner, and base effects imply that the YoY CPI growth rate in the first half of 2024 will narrow significantly, possibly even rebound.

Taking into account political risks and regional logistics disruptions, we judge that US CPI will bottom in Q1 2024, rebound in Q2, and then gradually decline in the second half. This trajectory poses substantial pressure on US stocks, as high inflation persistence limits the Fed’s room to cut rates.

Conclusion

The CPI release schedule for 2024 is now set, and investors should not miss any data releases. The key point is that the market focuses on the annual change rate rather than the monthly rate, and it’s important to distinguish the different implications of CPI and PCE for decision-makers. Historically, logistics factors are often underestimated inflation drivers. Looking ahead, inflation is expected to follow a “V-shaped” trajectory—bottoming in Q1, rebounding in Q2, and declining in the second half—deeply influencing asset allocation and trading strategies.