These days, SOL has been hovering around 122 for quite a while. On the surface, everything seems calm, but in fact, market liquidity has already started to change. The core reason is that the head of the Bank of Japan recently signaled the possibility of further interest rate hikes.

At first glance, this may seem unrelated to the crypto world, but in reality, it’s a big deal. The problem lies in Japan’s long-term zero-interest-rate environment, which has led to a large amount of cheap yen arbitrage funds accumulating globally. Where did this money go? Many of it flowed into high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Once Japan begins to tighten its monetary policy, the cost of funds will rise, and these arbitrage positions will face increasing pressure. Withdrawals won’t happen overnight, but they will occur gradually—you can see this as a medium- to long-term liquidity contraction signal. Market sentiment often reacts ahead of such changes.

In other words, there are signs of tightening in the global macro environment. For high-risk assets like SOL, this is not good news.

Looking at the technical side, from the 4-hour chart, the rebound has been relatively weak, and trading volume is shrinking. Around 123.5 acts like a ceiling, with multiple failed attempts to break through. This kind of rebound, lacking volume, usually indicates insufficient market participation, making further upward movement more difficult. In the short term, close attention should be paid to whether this resistance level can be effectively broken.