#通胀压力 Seeing the labor cost growth rate drop to its lowest in four years, what flashed through my mind was the 2017 cycle. Back then, everyone was chasing hot trends, and no one truly cared about the fundamentals. And what was the result? Once inflation expectations loosened, the entire market logic collapsed.

This time is different; behind the data lies a deeper story. Layoffs have risen to their highest since early 2023, and the voluntary resignation rate has hit its lowest since 2020—this is not a good sign. The decline in labor costs seems to ease inflation pressures, but essentially, it reflects a cooling job market. Those young employees forced to take pay cuts are voting with their feet.

I have experienced many such cycles. When economic data improves, it’s often the time when risks are accumulating the fastest. The Federal Reserve might see easing inflation and consider cutting interest rates, which sounds reasonable, but what if unemployment continues to rise? History tells me that this is when liquidity traps are most likely to occur.

Signs before 2008 were like this: on the surface, wage growth slowed, but in reality, the labor market was cracking. Today’s data reminds me that the market’s favorite thing isn’t real good news, but good news that can be spun into a story. When the story can no longer be sustained, that will be the real test.