Four waves of Bitcoin's rise: from the quote $145 to the all-time high - what market cycles teach us

Tracing the history of Bitcoin since 2009, we see a clear pattern: cryptocurrency bull runs don’t happen by chance. Each price increase is accompanied by specific events that repeat over and over. Understanding these trends allows you to prepare for the next surge in advance.

As of December 2025, Bitcoin is trading around $86.90K (real-time data). But the historical peak was $126.08K, and the path to these levels was no coincidence.

Why Bitcoin Grows in Waves: Halving as the Key Trigger

The main mechanism that triggers a cryptocurrency bull run is Bitcoin halving. Every four years, the mining reward is cut in half, reducing the number of new BTC entering the market. History shows:

• After the 2012 halving: increase of 5,200%
• After the 2016 halving: growth of 315%
• After the 2020 halving: surge of 230%
• After the 2024 halving: in April, the market rose amid supply shortages

Supply shortage is a universal driver of price for any asset, and Bitcoin is no exception.

The Four Main Bitcoin Rallies: Anatomy of Boom-and-Bust Cycles

2013: The First Mainstream Moment

Bitcoin rose from $145 in May to $1,200 in December — a 730% increase in half a year. Without competitors, Bitcoin attracted media attention and early investors.

What worked: the Cyprus financial crisis in 2013 prompted people to seek alternatives to the banking system.

What broke: a exchange handling 70% of trading volume was hacked in early 2014, leading to a three-year bear market.

2017: Retail Investors Storm the Market

From $1,000 in January to $20,000 in December — a 1,900% increase. Daily trading volume grew from $200 million to $15 billion.

What worked:

• The ICO boom (initial coin offerings) attracted millions of newcomers
• The emergence of user-friendly trading platforms simplified access
• Media created feedback loop: price rises → news → interest → higher prices

What broke: regulators (including SEC) banned ICOs and crypto exchanges. By December 2018, Bitcoin fell to $3,200 — an 84% drop from the maximum.

2020-2021: The Age of Institutional Money

Bitcoin rose from $8,000 in January 2020 to $64,000 in April 2021 — a 700% increase.

But the key difference was who invested:

• MicroStrategy accumulated over 125,000 BTC
• Tesla and Square allocated part of their treasury to Bitcoin
• Institutional inflows exceeded $10 billion

What worked:

• Bitcoin rebranded from “internet money” to “digital gold” (inflation hedge)
• Bitcoin futures (end of 2020) opened access for conservative funds
• Massive monetary stimulus (COVID-19 relief) prompted investors to seek stores of value

Correction: from $64,000 to $30,000 in July 2021 (-53%), but the bullish trend remained amid growing institutional holdings.

2024-2025: ETF Revolution and Exponential Phase

Main new event: approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the USA (January 2024).

Within one year:

• Bitcoin rose from $40,000 to $93,000 (+132%)
• Inflows into Bitcoin ETFs exceeded $28 billion (surpassing gold ETFs!)
• BlackRock holds over 467,000 BTC via IBIT ETF

This phase is characterized by legality and mass adoption: now even grandma from the provinces can buy Bitcoin through a bank without understanding wallets or cold storage.

New catalysts:

• Political support: Trump’s election with pro-crypto stance
• The BITCOIN Act of 2024 proposes the US accumulate 1 million BTC as a strategic reserve
• Other countries (Bhutan, El Salvador) have already recognized Bitcoin as a national reserve

How to Read Market Signals Before a Surge

No need to guess — a cryptocurrency bull run always shows signs:

On-chain metrics:

• Inflow of stablecoins to exchanges (people preparing funds for buying)
• Wallet activity increasing (new addresses accumulating BTC)
• Bitcoin reserves on exchanges decreasing (investors transferring to holdings)

Technical signals:

• RSI above 70 (strong buy momentum)
• Breakout of 50- and 200-day moving averages (trend reversal)
• Trading volume rising (participants exiting cash)

Macro triggers:

• Regulatory approval of new financial products like ETFs in 2024 (E0@
• Expectation of halving )3-6 months before the event(
• Geopolitical shocks )people seeking protection from devaluation(

What Threatens the Bulls: Risks of the Current Cycle

Bitcoin’s history is a history of pullbacks. The current position )$86.90K at ATH $126.08K( shows a correction of about 31%.

Main dangers:

1. Profit-taking — retail investors sell at 2x, 3x gains, causing wave-like slowdowns

2. FOMO bubbles — when TikTok traders rush into Bitcoin with leverage, corrections turn bloody

3. Macroeconomics — if the Fed raises rates, capital shifts into bonds and large-cap stocks

4. ESG pressure — attempts by regulators to restrict Bitcoin mining could position it as a “dirty” asset

5. Regulatory uncertainty — officials from different countries may simultaneously impose bans

How to Prepare for the Next Wave

1. Study history — if you don’t understand why Bitcoin surged in 2013, 2017, and 2021, you’re unprepared for 2025.

2. Diversify — don’t put all your eggs in one Bitcoin. Altcoins, stablecoins, and traditional assets reduce risk.

3. Choose a reliable platform — the exchange should have two-factor authentication )2FA(, cold storage, and a transparent history.

4. Use hardware wallets — if holding Bitcoin for over a year, offline wallets protect against hacks.

5. Watch for triggers:

• Announcements of new ETFs )historically drive demand(
• Halving dates )next in 2028(
• Regulation news )SEC, European regulators, Chinese bans(
• Macroeconomic data )Fed rates, inflation, currency devaluations(

6. Practice stop-loss — set automatic exit points if the price drops 20-30% from your average buy-in.

7. Don’t trade on emotions — Bitcoin’s volatility destroys leveraged traders. Stick to your plan.

Key Trends Changing the Game

Technological upgrades: restoring OP_CAT code will enable Bitcoin to process thousands of transactions per second via Layer-2 solutions, competing with Ethereum in DeFi.

Government reserves: if the US adopts Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, it will create excess demand for 1 million new BTC )out of 21 million(.

Inflation and exporters: emerging markets facing devaluation will transfer reserves into Bitcoin, bypassing the dollar.

When Will the Next Surge Come?

A cryptocurrency bull run doesn’t happen overnight. It’s built on prerequisites:

• Q4 2025 - Q1 2026: Reaction to pro-crypto policies and new regulatory approvals
• 2026: Expectation of the 2028 halving )growth usually begins 12-18 months before the event(
• 2027-2028: Classic halving cycle, boosted by government demand

For investors, this means: don’t rush to sell on $80-90K rebounds. History shows that after corrections of 25-35%, the market often breaks new ATHs.

Current data )24h volume $986.71M, address flow 55M+, market cap $1.735T( indicate that Bitcoin is integrating into the global financial system. It can serve as both a cushion against crises and a catalyst for bull cycles.

Main point: prepare in advance, don’t jump at the end of the move, and remember that Bitcoin’s volatility is its main feature, not a bug. Those who held through the drops of 2014, 2018, and 2022 are now in triple profit.