The big players in the industry are at odds lately! After the FY2026 budget announcement, opinions on Bitcoin's future have split into two camps: one pessimistic side is calling for a $60,000 price in the first half of the year, while the optimistic side is hyping up record-breaking ETF inflows. I've been in this circle for years and have talked to many analysis teams. Honestly—don't be fooled by these surface-level disputes. People are not as opposed as they seem.

What does the bearish camp say? They point out two major pressures: the sell-off cycle approaching in Bitcoin's four-year cycle, and the ongoing "1011 market shock." It sounds plausible, but I think they exaggerate the downside. I ran some calculations myself, considering the liquidity conditions in the US in 2026, and a drop to between $70,000 and $75,000 in the first half of the year seems more reasonable—far from the extreme $60,000 level. Interestingly, even these bearish analysts admit that a dip is a good opportunity to accumulate, and by the end of the year, they expect Bitcoin to surge to $115,000. So, are they really bearish? Clearly, they’re just trying to buy low.

Now, let’s look at the bullish logic: crypto ETF funds will hit new highs, and I support this view wholeheartedly. Major brokerages are already starting to develop crypto ETF products. Once the legislation around crypto is settled and the regulatory framework becomes fully transparent in 2026, long-term funds like social security and pension funds will have to enter the market. Think about it—how huge is the traditional financial system’s capital? It’s dozens of times larger than the crypto market. Just a 1% inflow of that capital could send the market soaring.

I’ve made a rough data model: by 2026, conservative estimates suggest crypto ETF inflows could exceed $50 billion. Once that happens, it will be enough to become the main driving force in the market. In simple terms, although these two camps are arguing on the surface, their core ideas are actually the same—they both believe the market will ultimately go higher, just with different views on the path and pace. Understanding this gives you a significant edge when judging the future trend.