Recently, SOL has been stuck at the $122 level for a long time. The Bollinger Bands on the K-line have already tightened significantly, and the MACD is about to form a golden cross. The market is everywhere discussing "a trend reversal is imminent." However, I noticed that most people haven't actually seen the real on-chain situation—those with real influence have already been quietly moving.

I have been monitoring the SOL ecosystem for 3 years and want to share two sets of recent on-chain data. In the past 72 hours, the number of large SOL transfers over 1000 tokens has increased by 68% week-on-week, but these transfers are very deliberate—they mostly go into personal cold wallets rather than exchanges. This is a typical signal of chip accumulation. At the same time, the locked-up tokens of leading projects within the ecosystem have hit a new all-time high, with an additional $230 million locked up just last week. These two signals together indicate that institutions and large holders are gradually building positions, and the fundamentals of the ecosystem are also being solidified.

Some may ask, since it's so obvious, why not wait until the MACD actually forms a golden cross before following in? This involves a timing gap in trading. The chips before a trend reversal are always the most valuable because once the golden cross is confirmed and the price breaks out, retail investors will rush in, and that is actually the stage when smart money begins to quietly unwind their positions.

My own approach is not to pursue perfect bottom-fishing or chasing breakouts, but to set two clear trigger conditions: First, the price remains stable above $125 with trading volume increasing by more than 30%; second, after the MACD forms a golden cross, if the price pulls back, it should not break the previous support level. Meeting these two conditions before adding to positions will significantly improve the win rate.