2025-12-30 07:24:57

Bitcoin experiences a wave of correction, and MicroStrategy (MSTR) follows suit, with the stock price dropping by 4%. The underlying logic is quite clear—MSTR, as the world's largest publicly traded Bitcoin treasury, derives over 95% of its valuation from BTC holdings. Currently holding about 670,000 BTC, accounting for 3.2% of the total circulating supply, the two can be said to be inextricably linked.

The most painful part of this adjustment is that it breaks the company's long-standing pattern of increasing holdings. The company has relied on issuing new shares at a premium to buy more BTC, creating a positive feedback "flywheel"—as BTC price rises, stock price rises, and after a premium is built in, they refinance and increase holdings. But now, the premium rate is narrowing, and data from the options market indicates that hedge funds are increasing their short positions, betting that this premium will continue to shrink.

Frankly, MSTR faces more pressure than that. MSCI may remove companies with over 50% digital asset exposure from its index, which could trigger a wave of passive fund sell-offs; plus, with annual interest and dividend expenses reaching $779 million, debt pressure is mounting. Once the premium turns negative, the financing chain could be completely broken.

But don’t be too pessimistic. The company still has $2.2 billion in cash reserves, so short-term liquidity issues are manageable. However, caution is needed against a vicious cycle: falling BTC price → narrowing premium → financing difficulties → forced sell-offs or financing challenges → further negative impact. It’s advisable to monitor BTC price movements and the progress of MSCI index adjustments carefully before making decisions.

BTC1.66%

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ImpermanentTherapist

· 01-02 05:14

If this MSTR flywheel gets stuck, we'll all be buried with it...

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ProveMyZK

· 01-01 07:13

Flywheel reversal is truly amazing, MSTR is a bit uncertain this time --- As the premium rate drops, the entire financing chain breaks, this is the cost of leverage --- 2.2 billion in cash sounds like a lot, but compared to the annual expenditure of 7.79 billion, it’s only a matter of two or three years --- If MSCI really kicks it out, the selling wave from passive funds will be terrifying, and no one will be able to save it then --- Honestly, I don’t quite understand what Saylor is still thinking. If the coin continues to fall, this model will completely collapse --- Hedge funds adding short positions indicates that smart money is already positioning, retail investors are still debating whether to buy the dip --- The key is whether BTC can hold its ground; MSTR is essentially just a leverage amplifier --- The debt pressure is the most critical part; liquidity exhaustion is much scarier than a drop in coin prices --- The vicious cycle described is spot on; once you get in, don’t expect to easily climb out

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HalfPositionRunner

· 2025-12-30 07:55

The most terrifying thing about the flywheel reversal, MSTR is really in a bit of a bind this time When the coin drops, you have to reduce holdings, a dead cycle Once the premium disappears, it's completely over, just looking at it is painful 2.2 billion in cash sounds like a lot, but where is the debt pressure... Once MSCI removes it, it's all over, I can't imagine the wave of selling from passive funds Hedge funds are all increasing their shorts, their instincts are really sharp The key is whether BTC can hold its ground, otherwise MSTR is really out of luck Once the financing chain breaks, there's no turning back, this move is risky

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LeekCutter

· 2025-12-30 07:51

When MSTR's flywheel reverses, the premium rate drops sharply, and the situation becomes serious.

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MemeEchoer

· 2025-12-30 07:51

MSTR this wave is a bit tragic, as the premium rate narrows, the entire flywheel can't turn anymore Hmm... the bears are itching to strike, this rhythm is indeed off Crypto and stocks both falling, this move is truly brilliant, just relying on the premium to sustain, but the stability of the earnings is uncertain 22 billion in cash sounds like a lot, but with 7.79 billion in interest rate pressure hanging here, time is tight If MSCI really pulls the trigger, passive funds will have to sell off, which is truly disgusting The current question is whether BTC can hold its ground, otherwise MSTR is really finished Who will take over if they reduce holdings? This is a deadlock

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GameFiCritic

· 2025-12-30 07:51

Wow, once this flywheel starts spinning in reverse, it really can't be stopped... I can already imagine how disastrous it will be when the premium rate turns negative.

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DefiPlaybook

· 2025-12-30 07:38

The premium rate turning negative means MSTR's financing flywheel is completely stalled. There are too many links in this logical chain. The MSCI index adjustment is indeed worth being cautious about. When the passive fund sell-off wave hits, even a cash reserve of 2.2 billion can't hold up. Bitcoin price movement is the ultimate stabilizer; everything else is derivative products.

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LiquidityHunter

· 2025-12-30 07:36

At 2 a.m., I saw this data and couldn't sleep... 670,000 BTC, 3.2% circulating supply ratio, narrowing premium rate—after this set of combined measures, the liquidity gap is really about to explode. I need to analyze the options market bearish positions in detail. What signals are hedge funds sensing? $2.2 billion in cash reserves sound like a lot, but the annual expenditure pressure of $779 million... Honestly, this time window is a bit risky. The most concerning part is the vicious cycle—once the financing chain breaks, the passive fund sell-off wave will cause liquidity depth to collapse completely, how much can slippage eat up arbitrage machines? We need to continuously monitor the abnormal spread between BTC and MSTR; there might be arbitrage opportunities inside.

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